Best NFL Picks Today

Eagles OC Sean Mannion was asked if we’re going to get more runs from Hurts after only 7 carries in Week 1. He told the media we would, stating, “It’s certainly something that really unlocks things for us.” Given that the Week 2 defense is Tennessee, I expect Hurts to have a big day on the ground and find the end zone, especially with the “Tush Push” at play. 

With the Steelers sending out a capable, experienced and versatile defense, I’m happy to take the points in what I forecast to be a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers finished with the seventh-highest PFF offense grade among quarterbacks and didn’t have a single turnover worthy play in Week 1, and the Steelers also finished the week ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA while allowing the second-lowest EPA per play.

We don’t need another 59-point eruption. Half of that will do in Chicago’s home opener. Brian Flores’ overrated defense allowed just 22 points last week, but Green Bay scored 19 before halftime and averaged 6.3 yards per play leading to a misleading final score. Give me four Bears touchdowns to clear this number. I’ll also accept 14 safeties. Whatever gets us there.

The Green Bay Packers leaned heavily on Jordan Love in Week 1, having him throw the ball 42 times for 387 yards against the Vikings. And while Matt LaFleur will probably try to install more balance moving forward, the passing game is clearly going to be an offensive focus for Green Bay this season, with unproven options like Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks providing little confidence in the running game. I'm taking Love to throw for 250+ yards at 55% or less.

This might be the best price we get for Chase Brown all season. He should not be 50% or lower in any game, and this price is giving the Texans too much credit after a similar top-tier offense just put up 36 points and 409 total yards in Houston last week. Chase Brown got six of the seven running back red-zone opportunities last week, including all three carries inside the five, where he cashed a -125 touchdown. He's scored seven TDs over his last four games dating back to last season, and I have him at a base probability of 55.6% against an average defense.

Play up to 60%. Chris Godwin caught all four of his targets for 40 yards in Week 1 and draws a favorable matchup from the slot. Cleveland struggled badly against slot receivers in its opener, including allowing Parker Washington five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Godwin should see enough volume to clear four receptions.

It seems every offensive position for the Broncos is a crowded mess, and that Week 1 prime-time performance left a sour taste in my mouth. The Jaguars, however, looked as good as the Bills and Ravens. The Denver run defense knew Kenneth Walker was coming with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and still got run over. That's where the 3.2x comes in for Bhayshul Tuten, and it's a price I'd take to 2.5x. The Jacksonville backfield was pretty split, and Tuten didn't play a huge amount at 48% of the snaps, but when he was on the field, he got the ball. He had 16 opportunities on 27 snaps, and the blowout might have muddied the actual rotation. Chris Rodriguez could poach some goal-line work, and his 4.1x price is also something to consider. I just think the Jacksonville running game and offense aren't getting enough credit against a Denver defense that did nothing and is on a short week.

I got this at 3.7x and would play to 3.2x. The Raiders should be playing in a negative game script on Sunday, and Michael Mayer could be the most-targeted Raider in an indoor game against a Chargers team that is in a must-win spot in Week 2. Last week as the TE1, Mayer led the Silver and Black in target share at 24% and targets per route run at 30%. He had seven targets and caught six balls, with the Raiders playing with the lead from start to finish. He was also one of three pass-catchers to see a target in the red zone. He isn't running deep routes, but that's a good thing when his QB is Kirk Cousins. He could have a big-volume game if Las Vegas is forced to pass more than its 46% rate in Week 1.

Let's not get carried away with Arizona's Week 1 win, and getting an RB1 against this team at 2.4x is a steal. Jadarian Price got his feet wet in the opener and was the preferred back on first and second down, with George Holani getting 92% of the third-down work. He'll have another week to plan with new QB Drew Lock, which could make this team more run-heavy than it was with Sam Darnold. The Seahawks only ran 48 plays last Wednesday, so Price's 10-carry, 52-yard game should have more volume in Week 2. The Seahawks had zero carries inside the 10-yard line, but George Holani took the only two red-zone carries. Here's hoping Mike Macdonald and Brian Fleury let Price eat a little more in the Price vs. Jeremiyah Love game.

This has bloodbath written all over it. Miami surrendered 27 points to a Raiders offense with nowhere near San Francisco’s firepower. The 49ers are fresh and already look locked in after hanging 27 on the Rams in Australia. Three more against this defense? Pretty damn reasonable. Miami’s offense should struggle to chew up clock, giving San Francisco plenty of chances to pile up the points.

Ferguson scored three touchdowns in two meetings vs Washington last season, and this matchup looks like another strong opportunity at current prices. The Commanders just surrendered 77 yards and two scores to Dallas Goedert and are coming off a season where they allowed the second-most TDs to the tight end position. Dallas averaged 29.9 points at home last year and should come out firing in its home opener.

Kansas City’s defense held Denver to 10 points and 3.7 yards per play in Week 1, continuing elite defensive play at home where they allowed only 15.6 points per game last season. Indianapolis struggled to move the football at home in Week 1, despite being forced into an aggresive game script for most of the game. Last season’s overtime meeting between these teams produced just 43 points. Ten of Kansas City’s last 12 games and eight of its last 10 at home stayed below 46.5.

Expect the Rams to come out swinging after their embarrasing Australia travel plan blew up in their face. They’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after an outright loss, so responding to failure has been a part of their recent DNA. The Giants impressed in Week 1, but there are levels to this. Los Angeles entered the season as the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite and was -9.5 on the lookahead. Rested and pissed off, the Rams should deliver a beatdown.