Best NFL Picks Today

I'll back the Seattle Seahawks at 57% on the moneyline, as I price them closer to 61% favorites on the road against the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix relies heavily on defined reads and quick-hitting concepts to succeed, and Seattle's front four should be able to generate pressure. That will allow Mike Macdonald to drop seven into coverage, disguise looks, and disrupt Nix's pre-snap reads. Julian Love is one of the league's best safeties, and I expect him to be a major factor in confusing Nix and disrupting his ability to read the defense.

I recommend the Jacksonville moneyline to -160 because this is a bad spot for Houston in this AFC South clash. Not only are the Texans heading to London for the waiting Jaguars, this is also the third road game in three weeks for Houston. Additionally, the Texans have faced the basement-dwelling Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans stop units over their past two games. The uptick in class is going to be too much for the Houston offense, with Jacksonville ranking third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and allowing the second-fewest points per drive

The Panthers are fifth in offensive yards per play and sixth in passing EPA. the Eagles are 22nd in defensive EPA, so look for Carolina's explosive offense to roll. The Eagles could get back Saquon Barkely and DeVonta Smith, so expect the low totals cutoff to rise as the weak goes on. Get in early on the Over

Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has cooked up the 12th highest pressure rate, with 11 sacks and a league-high 29 QB hits powering the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN. Ulbrich is going to test Williams’ wonky hamstring and his mobility early and often in Week 6. And that’s when Chicago gets to touch the ball. Atlanta’s ground-and-pound approach is chowing down on the fourth highest time of possession, burning through the 11th most seconds per play clock. The law firm of Robinson & Robinson are running all over opponents, with the third best success rate per handoff.

New York’s aggressive pass rush brings extra bodies at the fourth highest rate, sitting T-3 with 17 sacks and owning the No. 4 pass rush win rate. Glenn’s man-centric coverage gives up the third lowest yards per attempt and the fifth fewest yards after the catch. New England’s deteriorating pass protection already has QB Drake Maye feeling the heat, with the eighth highest pressure rate allowed. Maye has also struggled versus man coverage in 2026, owning a completion rate of 46% and a passer rating short of 78.0 versus man.

Kansas City’s offense is rolling in Episode 2 of the Eric Bieniemy Experience, with the team rating in the Top 10 of all the sexy advanced metrics and placing fourth in points per play. The Chiefs face a Bolts team that can’t seem to string together two positive plays before either turning the ball over or getting flagged for a penalty. The Chargers have the ninth lowest success rate on third down and picked up just 14 first downs in a loss to Denver Sunday. This will be L.A.’s third road game in the past four weeks and a much-needed bye in Week 7 could serve as look-ahead bait for the Bolts.

Jordan Love has thrown for 300+ yards in three of five games so far and faces a dreadful Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday Night Football. He's has enjoyed past meetings with the Cowboys, amassing 337 yards and three touchdowns last season and connecting for three TDs and 272 yards in Green Bay’s infamous ass-waxing of Dallas in the 2023 Wild Card Round. The Cowboys are off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay at home last Thursday. Three turnovers sucked all the juice out of a big night for QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 316 yards in Week 5. Dallas’ defense is getting blown away by explosive downfield plays, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per play.