Best NFL Picks Today

Looking for a slam dunk? It's Kenneth Walker. He was denied three straight times on the 1-yard line a week ago but is in line to score at least once against one of the worst run defenses in football. With the Chiefs likely in cruise control come the second half, look for them to lean on Walker and Emmett Johnson. If you're looking for more value, the team is looking to give the latter "more snaps," which could bode well this week in the touchdown department.

With two Panthers receivers on the injury report, Young may look to the tight end. Waller had two scores last week and would have ranked second on the team in scoring if he'd been a Panther last season. 

Elic Ayomanor might be WR2 facing a Giants defense that is on a short week and dealing with cluster injuries at corner. Davante Adams did whatever he wanted on MNF because of the lack of NFL talent at corner. Ayomanor should not be longer than 5.5x. He's playing better than Calvin Ridley and is getting targeted on 20% of his routes while sitting second on the team in air-yard share at 30%. He also has all of the WR red-zone targets at three through two games, with a TD. It's a longer shot here, but certainly +EV. The only thing knocking it is a bad pass offense, but the Eagles and Jets are a lot different than the Giants, who have allowed a red-zone touchdown on all six of their opponents' trips inside the 20.

TreVeyon Henderson made his season debut for New England in Week 2, garnering 60% of snaps after his backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled early on. Henderson finished with 16 carries for 76 yards and while the touches could be better balanced in Week 3, head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t dismiss Henderson’s involvement. With the Jaguars pass rush a problem, the New England run game needs to take heat off Maye and avoid long third downs. Jacksonville isn’t as strong versus the run, including the No. 28 rating in run stop win rate at ESPN. Measuring projections between the Pats two RBs, Henderson holds the most value. His forecasts lean toward 40+ rushing yards with some as high as 57 gains on the ground in Week 3.

Hampton has also rushed for 3.2 yards after contact per attempt with a third-ranked 103.8 PFF Elusive Rating while handling 66% of the team’s carries. So, with Buffalo surrendering four touchdowns to opposing running backs already, I like the go-to rusher to score for a third straight week. Hampton has handled 50% of the touches in the red zone for the Bolts and has converted both his rushes inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns, too.

There are a lot of Jets angles I want here. The Lions have been awful at defending the TE position early in the season, as even the Saints had TDs from Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant in Week 1. The problem is that the Jets have a four-TE rotation, with Kenyon Sadiq at 5.1x being a possibility, but I'm looking elsewhere. Adonai Mitchell (4.1x) had 12 targets last week and leads the Jets in target and air-yard share, but I don't want to get cute when Garrett Wilson is 2.5x or better. It's an indoor game with a high total, and Wilson also ranks high on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index. The Jets could put up points against this toothless defense, and a move from 2.8x last week to 2.7x this week isn't enough for the setting and matchup.

The Colts own one of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL, allowing teams to score at a near-70% clip when they reach their 20. This bodes well for Montgomery, who's being used the third-most in the red zone of any other running back in football, totaling six attempts for 19 yards and two touchdowns. Suffice to say when they get down by the goalline, Montgomery is their man.

I got this at 3x, and even if Jadarian Price is out, this could close at 2.3x. Even if Price does play, Emanuel Wilson handled more red-zone carries last week than any other running back in football and didn't get a full workload until the second half. Another angle here is that the Seahawks want to run the ball in the red zone. Through two games with Drew Lock, Seattle has run the ball 18 times in the red zone compared to just nine dropbacks. Price is dealing with a chest injury that could keep him out of the hard-yard work in the red zone even if he dresses. Give me the 20-touch back at a long TD price in a positive-game-script matchup against a backup QB.

The Bengals haven’t looked to Higgins in the red zone yet in 2026, and I’m anticipating that to change following consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Higgins garnered 19.8% and 19% of the red-zone targets the past two years, and wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (thumb) is also out of the lineup. With Pittsburgh set to have its hands full with star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins stands to see softer coverage in Week 3, too.

McCaffrey has a team-high 12 targets this season and led San Francisco with 102 catches last season. It was his third season with 100+ receptions. CMC caught five passes in Week 1 and caught at least five passes in 14 of his 19 regular-season and playoff games last season.

Bucky's red-zone usage alone should make you want to invest in him to score against the Vikings. Minnesota is coughing up 100 yards per game on the ground, and when you add in Irving's volume both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, it's the perfect storm for him hitting pay dirt for the second time this season.

This was a tough one. I wanted Lamar Jackson, as the Cowboys are giving up the most QB rushing yards to opposing QBs by a mile, but +175 isn't a price I want to pay when it went from 3.6x to 2.85x to this week's 1.75x. It's priced in. Rashod Bateman midweek is appetizing, but I don't want to be holding a 2.75x if Zay Flowers comes back. I have to go back to Jake Ferguson at 3.65x after a cash last week and two red-zone TDs. He is still the No. 3 in the passing game, but has a prominent goal-line role with three of the team's seven RZ pass attempts to tight ends and wide receivers. Dallas had the No. 1 PROE in Week 2 at 13.8%. I'd play Ferguson to 3.40x.

New Orleans offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore will find ways to use RB Travis Etienne Jr., who signed a four-year, $48 million deal this offseason. Etienne has 26 career rushing touchdowns and eight receiving touchdowns, including a career-best six receiving scores last season.

This might seem short, but I have this fair price much closer to even money. Matthew Stafford had no interest in passing to anyone but Davante Adams last Monday, even with the injuries to Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington, who have been DNPs early this week. Adding to the pass-catcher injuries, Colby Parkinson is dealing with a knee injury. Parkinson played 70% of the snaps in Week 2 and was used more as a blocker, which could be a downgrade for the run game. Stafford was also happy to keep passing in the second half in a game that was already over when Jaxson Dart left. Adams was a beast against a bad secondary, putting up 195 yards and two TDs on 10 targets. He has a 28% target share heading into the Sunday nighter. Adams is also arguably the best red-zone pass-catching wide receiver in football. He tied for the league lead in RZ targets last year with 32 despite playing in only 14 games. He should be even money here, and even Patrick Surtain doesn't scare me.

I'll be backing the Philadelphia Eagles at -4.5 in this one, as I price them closer to a 6-point favorite against the Chicago Bears. I'm not going to lie, the side I choose always comes down to the numbers, but as a football fan, I'm thrilled that my edge in the projections is with the Eagles instead of Tyson Bagent/Case Keenum and the Bears. The line has moved six points from Bears -1.5 to Eagles -4.5 following Caleb Williams' injury and the downgrade to Bagent/Keenum. But I don't think the market has adjusted enough for this specific matchup against an Eagles defense coached by Vic Fangio and loaded with playmakers. This isn't a Williams-to-Bagent/Keenum downgrade against the Tennessee Titans.