Best NFL Picks Today

Give me the Chicago Bears on the moneyline at 59%, as I price them closer to 62% favorites against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. New England's offensive line enters this matchup banged up, with multiple players questionable. On a short week and on the road, communication and pass protection adjustments become more difficult. I expect Dennis Allen to exploit those weaknesses with creative pass-rush schemes and coverage disguises, helping the Bears' defense contain Drake Maye and creating value on Chicago.

I can get behind DK Metcalf at 2.7x, but when Germie Bernard has Aaron Rodgers' trust, is seeing double-digit targets, and is 60 points longer, I'll take the rookie who caught the game-winning touchdown last week. I have him at a fair price of 3x in an indoor matchup against a defense allowing the fourth-most TDs per game (3.5). The Steelers can put up points Sunday, and they can do it through the air. This offense is passing at the second-highest rate in football (67% DB%) and owns the fifth-highest PROE. Even if Bernard isn't getting downfield, that might actually be a good thing in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

Not only is the Vikings' defense ranked first in points allowed and defensive EPA, but they own the best red-zone defense in football, allowing teams to score at just a 25% clip inside the 20. That's pretty damn incredible if you ask me; this bend-don't-break mentality is going to be a huge reason this Under cashes. Offensively, Minnesota hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging just 21 points per game. The Vikings don't need to be spectacular on that side of the ball to win games - they simply need to be serviceable and avoid costly mistakes. Even against a struggling Colts defense, I'm not expecting many explosive plays. Instead, this matchup has the makings of a conservative, low-scoring affair with limited scoring opportunities.

The Jets come back to MetLife Stadium for an AFC East encounter with the Miami Dolphins. This will be just the third home game for Gang Green and the team could potentially have several starters back, including RB1 Breece Hall. Miami tightens some screws on offense coming off the bye week. New QB Malik Willis isn’t afraid to push the ball down field, sitting among the leaders in intended air yards. The Fins have run into some stiff competition, facing strong defenses in Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City. As for their own defense, the Dolphins are dreadful, especially where it counts most. Miami has the second worst third down defense and ranked 29th in opponent success rate heading into their Week 6 bye.

The Bengals pass rush is a quiet killer, producing the fifth highest pressure along with 17 sacks in five games despite blitzing at the second lowest rate. That frees up the Cincy linebackers to focus fire on Derrick Henry. The Ravens pass defense hasn’t faced a QB as good as Burrow since Dak Prescott and as Jason La Canfora points out, Baltimore’s corners have allowed a QB rating of 94.4 against from a group of passers with a collective rating of just 86.0. Burrow doesn’t need any help looking better than he is, currently ranked near the top in several key QB measurements. The last time he faced Jesse Minter’s defense, he passed for 356 yards and three touchdowns versus the L.A. Chargers in 2024.

In a matchup where the smallest margins could ultimately decide the outcome, finding even the slightest edge is crucial. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, that edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense has quietly been a bright spot this season, ranking 13th in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee sits a lowly 23rd. The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. I'm all over the Browns here - Cam Ward and his struggling offense are going to have a difficult time moving the ball between the 20s and ultimately finding the end zone.

The Buccaneers’ luck could change this Sunday, starting with Baker Mayfield making progress in his return from a thumb injury. He was back on the practice field ahead of Sunday’s road clash with the Carolina Panthers. Another less-Swedish proverb is “defense travels”. That’s a good thing for Tampa, considering its stop unit has quietly crept up the defensive metrics and sits Top 10 in sexy stats like EPA allowed, opponent success rate and Defensive DVOA. The Panthers’ three wins have come against teams either starting a backup QB (Atlanta) or fielding a dreadful defense (Detroit) - or both (Philadelphia). This is a massive matchup for Todd Bowles and the half-point hook on the field goal seems too much for a divisional rivalry.

before you chalk up another win for the Niners, consider this California club is traveling on a short week after playing Monday and facing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT). As solid as San Francisco has been on both sides of the ball, there are injuries to key contributors on offense and defense in Week 7. And for what it’s worth, this will be just the second true road game San Francisco has played (with the other a quick trip to Seattle). At first glance, this looks like a battle between Atlanta’s elite rushing attack versus San Francisco’s stingy run stop unit. But while the 49ers are among the better defenses in yards allowed per carry and EPA allowed per handoff, they sit 29th in opponent success rate per run.

Playable to 51%.

The Texans defense ranks 10th in success rate allowed. The Giants rank a respectable 20th in defensive success rate, despite facing Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Jayden Daniels already this season. 

New York's secondary unit should be healthier in Week 7 than it has been in recent weeks, too. If the Giants are able to get cornerback Colton Hood or safety Tyler Nubin back this weekend, it would go a long way to keeping this game relatively low-scoring.

The Raiders have picked up their passing in the last three outings, dropping back on more than 67% of snaps. That’s comparable to the Rams’ passing play percentage, which sits at 67.8% in their last three showings. Both offenses play with pace, sitting Top 8 in quickness in terms of play clock used per snap. The Rams and Raiders are also comfortable turning up the intensity with higher rates of no-huddle used, both sitting in the Top 10 in hurry-up usage. The last four games for the Silver and Black have been absolute shootouts, topping the total in each outing. Before Sunday’s dud against Arizona, L.A. had gone Over the number in three straight showings.

Seattle sits second in pressure rate per dropback and doesn’t need to rely on the blitz to cook up that intensity. The Seahawks are Top 10 in both sacks and QB hits. Getting pressure from just the front four is the blueprint to beating Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s QB is a master at dissecting blitzes but struggles under pressure from a four-man rush, with his PFF rating dropping nearly 25 points when under duress. Injuries at left tackle are mounting for KC as well. Neither defense gives up big plays, sitting among the leaders in limiting explosive passes, and both offenses are very methodical. 

Philly checks in 1-5 ATS, and now the team has major injury concerns on both sides of the ball – and at every level. While there’s no sugarcoating the struggles of the Dallas defense, the offense can score on a Philadelphia stop unit allowing the seventh-highest EPA per play and generating pressure at the sixth-lowest rate. With the Eagles ranking 26th in offensive DVOA and dipping to just 14.5 points per game across their four consecutive losses, even the Cowboys can make enough stops to pull away and cover the number.