Pittsburgh @ Chicago Picks & Props

Swift has 12 or more receiving yards in seven of nine games for 6.4 yards per target and 23 receptions for 210 yards. He also went good for 12 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games last season, and he’s only had a lower receiving yards total twice since joining the Bears. With the Steelers blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, I’m anticipating Swift being involved in the passing game as a means to mitigate the Pittsburgh pressure.

There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice. Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers have four DBs out, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10–15 points of cushion in his number.

The Bears continue to play with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.6% rate.. Jaylen Warren ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.10 per game.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Bears defense has been torched for the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to running backs: 0.30 per game this year.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has produced significantly more this season, currently boasting 15.0 per game.. Darnell Washington's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.. Darnell Washington's 31.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 15.0 figure.. The Bears defense has surrendered the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (63.0) to TEs this year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects D'Andre Swift to notch 3.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.. With an impressive 11.4% Target% (86th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. With an impressive 94.1% Route% (94th percentile) this year, DK Metcalf stands as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, DK Metcalf is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 86th percentile among WRs with 7.7 targets.. This year, the poor Bears defense has allowed a whopping 159.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-worst in the league.. This year, the porous Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a monstrous 9.80 yards.

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Jaylen Warren is anticipated by the projection model to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.6 carries.. Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his team's ground game this season (65.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%).. Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).. The Chicago Bears defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry.