Best NFL Picks Today

Rashid Shaheed is a home run threat, especially against a Denver defense running man coverage at the seventh highest frequency. The Broncos are likely without shutdown corner Patrick Surtain again and could also miss their other starting CB in Riley Moss and SS Talanoa Hufanga. Shaheed's TNF projections all sit north of 22 yards, ranging from 25 to a ceiling of 36.5 receiving yards. My number comes out to 30 yards from the Seattle speedster with respect to his ability to take the top of the defense and strike for big plays.

Tuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating. He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year. With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns in 2026, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.

Tony Pollard could see his snaps and touches spike with fellow RB Tyjae Spears dealing with multiple injuries heading into Week 6. Pollard has rushed at least 14 times in each of his last four games and Tennessee faces a Colts defense among the worst run stop units. Projections for Pollard sit as high as 17 carries for 70+ rushing yards. My number comes out to 61 yards rushing from the veteran RB.

I got this at 4.1x with a fair price of 3.4x and expect it to come down during the week. This is a classic post-bye-week value play for Coker, who faces a banged-up Eagles team on both sides of the ball. Coker missed Week 4 before heading into the Week 5 bye, making him an afterthought for many. He was a full participant at practice Wednesday. In the two full games he's played this year, he's posted lines of 8/138/2 and 8/66/0. He's also seen five red-zone targets across those two games, more than Tetairoa McMillan. The rest advantage for the Panthers is significant, with the Eagles returning from London.

Germie Bernard will be the WR2 in the passing game this week with Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, and Michael Pittman out. When Wilson exited last week, Bernard played 93% of the snaps and posted a 6/80/0 line on a team-high nine targets. Aaron Rodgers has also talked up the rookie, which isn't something that happens every day. A WR2 in this offense should be priced shorter than 4x, not the 4.35x available on Friday. In games where he's played 30+ snaps, he's seen 8+ targets in each. He's also seen a red-zone target in three of his four games. The Bucs have two starters in the secondary listed as questionable, making a play on the rookie even more enticing at a long price.

With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens defense stepped up in Week 5. This stop unit is learning a brand-new system under head coach Jesse Minter and has been plagued with injuries in the opening month. Baltimore is a prideful crew that stepped up in the second half of SNF and ranks among the top 10 defenses in EPA allowed and opponent success rate over the last two weeks. The pass rush could have LB Trey Hendrickson back for Week 6. His pressure helps the Ravens’ blitz-heavy schemes get home and finally start registering sacks and QB hits. The Cleveland Browns’ erratic offense hasn’t faced a foe this stingy since a Week 1 wash against Jacksonville.

It's a good week to buy low on the Saints' offense after they ran into the Vikings last week and did nothing. The Giants are not the Vikings, and New York has faced the Titans, Commanders, and Cardinals and still ranks No. 22 in EPA/play allowed. They have five DBs on IR and another questionable this week. The Saints can move the ball in Week 6. Kendre Miller is the early-down back now. He had three red-zone carries last week and was the only running back to see any RZ opportunities. Alvin Kamara played just 12 snaps and had only one carry after the Saints' third drive. If New Orleans gets into the red zone, it'll have a great chance of finishing drives with touchdowns, as the Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in RZ TD% allowed. The fair price for a Miller TD should be 2.4x.

Caleb Williams was listed as a full participant at Wednesday's estimated walkthrough, which is great news for this offense in an indoor setting vs. Atlanta. Luther Burden is coming off a season-high 76% snap share and added four rushing attempts. He saw another two red-zone targets and is tied for the team lead in looks inside the 20 through five games. He has a better target share than both Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, yet is priced longer than both. Playing indoors increases pass rate and efficiency, and the Bears are already running the most plays per game in the league. I'm playing Burden to 2.7x.

I got this at 6x and have the fair price around 5x. Romeo Doubs isn't impressing in an offense that has found a new gear over the last two weeks. Doubs had just one catch despite playing 85% of the snaps and running a route on 92% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, speedster Kyle Williams had 91 yards and a TD on three targets despite just a 34% route share. Williams is getting more looks and played 41% of the snaps in 3-WR sets. With Mack Hollins out, Williams will get his chances to impress and stretch the New York defense in an offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/dropback over the last two weeks. He doesn't need a lot of volume to cash this.

Tyler Higbee is at a three-week TD price high of 3.6x, which I'd play to 2.35x this week. He might be fourth on the offensive totem pole, but Higbee has emerged as the most productive tight end in this offense. He's had 5+ catches in three straight games, is coming off a season-high in yards, and has 18 grabs for 212 yards since Week 3. There's enough volume in this offense to support a fourth mouth, as the Rams rank second in football in plays per game (70.6) with the fourth-highest pass rate over expected at +2.8%. Matthew Stafford has attempted 50+ passes in three straight weeks. The Cardinals are one of just two teams allowing 70+ receiving yards and 0.80+ TDs per game to opposing tight ends this year.

With Rashee Rice not practicing midweek after having Week 5 off, it's looking more likely that Jalen Royals will run as the No. 2 wide receiver Sunday vs. the Chargers. That should price Royals at 4x, not the 5.5x available Friday. The loss of Tyquan Thornton only opens up more snaps for Royals, who should see 70% of the snaps against a defense that currently has six starters listed as questionable for Sunday. It's been a couple of weeks since we've seen the Chiefs, who rank fourth in EPA/play, but with an implied team total of 25 points, Royals as a WR2 is a good look at this price.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid has been quiet the last two games, drawing only four total targets for two receptions and 14 yards. “When we have the opportunity to get the ball in his hands, we want to do that. Obviously, we’ve got to find a way, as a coaching staff, to make that happen better than it did last night,” OC Pete Carmichael told the media after the win over the Rams. Before this drought, Kincaid has 38, 95, and 130 yards receiving. He gets back at it in Week 6, playing a Raiders defense that allows the 11th most yards to rival TEs. Kincaid’s projections all sit well beyond this total ranging from 47 to 56 receiving yards. My number comes out to 53 yards in Week 6.

Tucker Kraft's productivity is rising with the Green Bay offense. He has 11 catches on 12 targets over the last two weeks, with four red-zone targets and a score. He's priced longer than Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to score but should be closer to 2.7x vs. the 3x price available Friday. The Cowboys are one of eight defenses allowing 2+ passing TDs per game and rank dead last in EPA/dropback. None of the big three pass-catching options in this offense should be priced longer than 2.7x. Kraft also had a QB sneak last week that could translate to a goal-line opportunity if needed on fourth down.

The 49ers run one of the highest rates of zone coverage, and Daniels has struggled with it in his limited reps over the past two seasons. San Francisco doesn’t allow anything over the top, with the fewest explosive plays against. With a negative game script, Daniels will be dropping back a lot and throwing for deeper strikes in an effort to catch up. Daniels ranks 36th in danger plays (risks that could result in turnover) and has the 12th highest percentage of bad throws per dropback. Yet, he's not thrown an INT through his limited work. Monday's the night and I love the plus-money return, with projections leaning to a pick at 0.7 INTs in Week 6.