Best NFL Picks Today

Playable to 15%. Josh Cameron is our longshot TD scorer, especially since two of his seven targets this season have gone for a score.

He ranks sixth in routes run for the Jaguars, but Trevor Lawrence clearly trusts him near the goal line and has been distributing the ball quite evenly. 

Play up to 35%. Harold Fannin Jr. leads Cleveland with three touchdowns and has converted all three of his red-zone targets into scores. With a 20% target share and an established role near the goal line, another touchdown is firmly in play.

Playable to 29%.

Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air. Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.

Ashton Jeanty has established himself as the go-to option in the running game for the Las Vegas Raiders with 78 carries in their first four games. Jeanty is also a big part of the passing attack for Las Vegas, where he's picked up two scores and 19 receptions this year. I'm expecting Jeanty to get back in the end zone this week, and I'm backing him to score at up to 47%.

Jones' anytime TD is playable up to 55%. He's now Minnesota's primary back, while New Orleans has allowed an NFL-high nine rushing touchdowns to running backs. His receiving role gives him another path to scoring.

Play up to 50%. C.J. Stroud has cleared this number in three of four games, including 347 yards against Dallas. Houston ranks sixth in passing but 30th in rushing, while Tennessee allowed 285 passing yards last week, supporting another pass-heavy approach.

Fields has been called on for at least 65% of the snaps in every game so far - and he scored his first career TD last weekend. With the Commanders giving up 14 TDs through their first four outings this season, Fields gives the Giants a clear red zone mismatch.

The Steelers have a massive rest and travel advantage this week, so I recommend this moneyline to 62%. Pittsburgh played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, while Indianapolis is returning from London for this road game. This puts an Indy defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA in a tough spot. The Colts have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage while also allowing the sixth-highest rushing yards per attempt, after all. As a result, I expect Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground in horrible weather conditions to dominate the time of possession and keep the Indy offense on the sidelines Sunday afternoon.

The touchdowns are coming for Loveland, and I recommend him to score down to +200 in Week 5. He's coming off his best game of the season (six receptions for 57 yards), which included three red-zone targets, and I also value him hauling in 15 receptions for 197 yards and a score against Green Bay in 2025.

Playable to 52%.

Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hand quickly this weekend against Broncos. Fortunately, he has an offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who has vast experience designing game plans to protect his quarterback when the team's offensive line isn't healthy.

LaPorta draws a favorable matchup against an Arizona defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Gibbs and St. Brown should command plenty of attention, leaving LaPorta opportunities against weak coverage over the middle.

Shaheed's first TD is playable up to 8%. He can score as a receiver, runner, or returner, giving him more paths than a typical long shot. He even returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against San Francisco last postseason.

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.

The Bills' defense is a laughingstock right now as new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard struggles to get his new scheme figured out. Drake Maye and the Patriots just put up 405 yards in Orchard Park and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. The only team not to put up 25+ points against this Buffalo defense was the Chargers, who forced five turnovers and still converted 50% of their third downs. Matthew Stafford has completed 61 passes over the last two games against legitimate defenses in Philadelphia and Denver. LA might score 40 points on Monday. The Rams' defense just allowed 20 points to a no-name Philly offense that went 0-for-12 on third downs and managed just 10 passing yards in the second half. The only team not to score 20+ against them was the Giants, who lost Jaxson Dart early. Josh Allen's efficiency indoors is off the charts, and I love both QBs to keep this game alive in a negative game script and help backdoor the Over if need be.