Best NFL Picks Today

Is there anything more beautiful than CMC checkdowns? The man was the entire offense last year, and while that type of workload probably isn't in the cards for him this season, I think five receptions out of the backfield/slot is definitely in play tonight. Purdy simply loves his safety blanket, and he won't shy away from him in a neutral-site game in Australia. McCaffrey went over this number in 13 regular-season games last year; if Myles Garrett and that Rams defensive line pressure Purdy like we all know that unit can, expect McCaffrey to gobble up receptions all night.

The gap between Colston Loveland's TD market implied probability (32%) and his actual chance of scoring (fair around 40%) is a big Week 1 advantage for early bettors. Loveland averaged 66 yards per game after Week 8 last season while adding touchdowns in five of those games (six total). Wide receiver Rome Odunze (leg) suffered his injury last Thursday and didn't practice Tuesday, while Luther Burden has been out for about a month with a groin injury and is working his way back to practice this week. It's the perfect spot at the wrong price for Caleb Williams' favorite target over the second half of last season. Williams finished last year with the third-highest deep-throw rate, and Loveland, who doesn't drop balls and played 40% of his snaps in the slot or out wide, could take full advantage as the healthiest pass catcher on the roster.

I got this at +400, but there's room for it to move as high as +250 if the injury luck falls in his favor. Ja'Kobi Lane has been a standout all camp, and the third-round rookie found the end zone in the preseason. He could have a great opportunity to contribute Sunday indoors in a potential high-scoring game, with Zay Flowers and Devontez Walker limited at practice this week while Rashod Bateman has been dealing with potential charges stemming from June. The Baltimore offense will want to start with a bang under new head coach Jesse Minter and OC Declan Doyle, who have been working on getting Lamar Jackson back to his MVP ways in his age-30 season.

I got this at +140, but if he has the goal-line role, this should be around +115/+120%. Jaylen Warren has been in Pittsburgh much longer than Rico Dowdle, but this is Mike McCarthy's guy, and Dowdle might be the early-down back, according to some Pittsburgh beat writers. This is an Atlanta defense that can be beaten early in the season, as the Falcons are missing some big names. Jalon Walker is out for the season, James Pearce Jr. is suspended, Billy Bowman and Za'Darius Smith are limited, and JD Bertrand is out. This gauged pass rush could create an extra trip or two to the red zone for the Steelers and Dowdle.

Bought at x3.7. Fair at x3.15. The Jaguars are trying to get Brian Thomas going after the disaster that was last season, and those moves might revive the burner. Thomas was useless over the middle under first-year offensive coach Liam Coen who is pushing him to the “X” receiver and using him more like the vertical threat he was in his rookie year. Travis Hunter is still not a major threat so last year’s setup with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington will still be the norm for Thomas who has had a leadup to the season. Cleveland is obviously without Mykles Garrett, but this is still a great defense, however, it’s not a bad one to attack early as it will be learning a new scheme under first-year DC Mike Rutenberg who replaces Jim Schwartz after he bailed on the organization after not getting the HC job. If he looks good in Week 1, bettors will never see a payout like this all season. 

I bought this at 29.4% and have a fair price of 35%. Give me a 100-catch, 1,100-yard alpha receiver with competent quarterback play in a great offensive matchup at 33.3% or better every single time. The Titans are being priced like the Rams at this number. Either that, or the Jets' offense is being priced with Brady Cook under center. Wilson could see 40% of the targets on Sunday, and this price is simply too long.

Detroit led the NFL in home scoring in each of the last two seasons, averaging 32.5 PPG last season and 34.9 PPG in 2024. The Lions now face a Saints defense with questions in the secondary and Cam Jordan’s absence up front. New Orleans allowed 31-plus points in road games against Seattle, Buffalo, and the Rams last season, putting Detroit in a strong position to clear this team total.

I bought this at -120 but have the fair price closer to -150. It's Week 1, and I want a layup to get on the board. I don't see many running backs as likely to score Sunday as David Montgomery. The Bills gave up a league-high 18 TDs to opposing running backs last year and are a worse unit this season after losing five starters and bringing in a new defensive scheme. The Texans were one of the worst teams near the goal line last season, and they'll make it a point to change that narrative this year with their new back. Montgomery should get the majority of the red-zone work, and Houston can flirt with four TDs.

The Cardinals might be the biggest dogs of the week, but I can't pass up an RB1 who is likely to get the red-zone work at 35% or lower. The former Falcon was named the starter ahead of Jeremiyah Love, who is dealing with an ankle injury. It's an indoor game that could see some scoring, and despite being a 9-point dog, this is a price that's too tough to ignore. I was looking at the Chargers' tight end situation, as they're expected to run heavier sets, but the TE trio isn't exactly exciting. Bijan Robinson's backers know very well that Allgeier can find the end zone.

This is the best +EV touchdown per the projections at Covers. The fair probability is 32.3% vs. this 28.4%. This Vikings offense might have the best quarterback play it's had in a season, and Jordan Addison should see plenty of single coverage with the eyes on Justin Jefferson. The Packers' defense is another good unit to fade after it fell apart last year without Micah Parsons. The change at defensive coordinator adds another wrinkle to this Packers defense.

With Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener, both passing attacks are short on reliable targets. Ashton Jeanty and De’Von Achane should be the focal points, setting up a run-heavy matchup that keeps the clock moving. Miami’s limited supporting cast raises concerns, while Las Vegas turns to Kirk Cousins after his disappointing Atlanta stint. There’s little reason to expect consistent scoring from either offense.

I recommend Barkley to score to -130 because he's run all over Washington with 428 rushing yards and five touchdowns across a mere three games since joining the Eagles. Additionally, he had his best game of 2025 with a season-high 5.19 yards after contact per attempt and PFF grade against the Commanders in Week 16. And, while the Washington defense is set to improve, it’s still a stop unit that ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA and allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate in 2025. Finally, Philadelphia didn't bring in competition for Barkley's role over the offseason, and he garnered a 74% snap share with 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone last year.

The new tight end could become the No. 2 option in a passing game that has plenty of upside in the opener. Isaiah Likely signed a three-year deal, so the G-Men are committed, while Malik Nabers obviously comes with some health concerns. There are also reports that Jaxson Dart and Likely have created a solid bond throughout camp and the preseason. Getting a No. 2 option in the passing game comes at a price of around 30%, especially in a neutral, high-total game. I'm buying the Dart/Likely juice.

Six straight Broncos–Chiefs meetings have gone Under, averaging just 33.7 combined points, with five failing to reach 40. The rosters have changed, but this opener offers fresh reasons to expect another grind. Mahomes and Nix are each returning from major injuries against defenses that finished in the top five in points allowed last season. That’s a tough setup for either offense to come out firing.