Atlanta @ San Francisco Picks & Props

Daniel Johnson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Daniel Johnson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Daniel Johnson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Daniel Johnson has an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph, which is one of the best in the game at the 99th percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Nick Allen has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Nick Allen are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme groundball bats like Willy Adames tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach. Willy Adames will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Willy Adames's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (26.2°) is considerably higher than his 22.2° angle last year.

The weather report expects the most suitable pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hayden Birdsong will hold the platoon advantage over Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. The switch-hitting Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Spencer Schwellenbach. Patrick Bailey will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Patrick Bailey has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.3-mph EV. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 15.4% to 23.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Alex Verdugo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hayden Birdsong in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Alex Verdugo has been unlucky this year. His .282 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .309. Alex Verdugo has compiled a .269 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Michael Harris II will have an edge today. In the last 7 days, Michael Harris II's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.2-mph over the course of the season to 100.6-mph in recent games. Michael Harris II has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .251 mark is considerably lower than his .310 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler Fitzgerald will hold that advantage today. Tyler Fitzgerald has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 85.1-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 82.7-mph figure. Tyler Fitzgerald's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 16.7% on the season to 23.8% in the past two weeks.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Mike Yastrzemski will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today. Hitters such as Mike Yastrzemski with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Mike Yastrzemski will hold that advantage today.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In the last 14 days, Ozzie Albies's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.3-mph over the course of the season to 90.3-mph recently. Compared to last season, Ozzie Albies has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.2% to 17.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. In the last week, Sean Murphy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 33.3%. Sean Murphy has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 106.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph. Sean Murphy's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 44.7% on the season to 70% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jung Hoo Lee is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Jung Hoo Lee will have an advantage in today's game. Jung Hoo Lee will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Matt Chapman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme flyball batters like Matt Chapman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach. Wilmer Flores will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Wilmer Flores's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 43.6% on the season to 53.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Spencer Schwellenbach in today's matchup. Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Dominic Smith's 10.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Marcell Ozuna has recorded a .379 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Marcell Ozuna has recorded a .384 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Heliot Ramos has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Heliot Ramos will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Matt Olson will have an advantage today. Matt Olson has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.5% rate last year to 17.8% this season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 19th-best hitter in MLB. Austin Riley is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. In the past week, Austin Riley's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley's true offensive talent to be a .362, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .031 gap between that mark and his actual .331 wOBA.