MLB Picks

The Detroit Tigers have the stronger full-game profile behind Framber Valdez, who owns a 2.37 FIP over his last two starts without allowing a homer. The Cleveland Guardians have struggled against lefties, while Foster Griffin enters in poor form. With the Tigers carrying a 130 wRC+ lately, Detroit has the offensive edge tonight.

Griffin Conine looks primed for a breakout performance against Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski. After coming inches away from multiple home runs last night, Conine draws a favorable matchup against a pitcher who has struggled to limit hard contact and barrels. Mlodzinski has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.36% barrel rate over his last five starts, while left-handed hitters have produced a .352 xBA, .538 xSLG and .367 xwOBA against him over their last 60 at-bats. Conine has also been crushing the ball, posting a .529 SLG, .264 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate and 22.75% barrel rate.

The Over is 6-0-1 in the Cubs’ last six games as a road favorite - let’s see if that hits for the seventh time.

 

Will Warren has been incredibly unlucky the past month, with a strong 2.58 xFIP and 48.9% ground ball rate wiped out by an unsustainably high .389 BABIP and nearly 40% of baserunners scoring.

Bryce Miller owns a 5.24 xFIP over the same time while posting a 50% fly ball rate and allowing well over two homers per nine.

Both offenses are struggling, so I want to be on the side of the better pitching. 

Back New York to -140.

If anyone is going deep off Suarez today, it’s Alejandro Kirk. The Blue Jays catcher owns a .599 xBA against the lefty, and a massive .714 xSLG, leading me to believe he’s the man for the job. 

This matchup in Atlanta sets up as a potential pitching duel between Zac Thornton and Tyler Mahle. Both right-handers have done an excellent job limiting hard contact and, more importantly, barrels over their recent stretches. Across their last five starts, opposing hitters have stayed below an 8.5% barrel rate against both pitchers. While Thornton’s underlying numbers remain a concern, his ability to suppress hard contact has been impressive. Both offenses have been swinging the bats well over their last 12 games, but if Thornton and Mahle can consistently locate their pitches, the hard contact should remain limited and runs could be difficult to come by.

Castillo has allowed multiple homers in three of his last four outings, and Stewart is Cincinnati’s best four-seam hitter with a .643 SLG and +14 run value against the pitch.

Not only are the Rangers’ bats about to feast - they own the 12th highest wRC+ in baseball - they remain one of the better Over teams in the league, hitting at a 53.5% clip. The Over has also cashed for Texas in five of their last six games when they’re taking on a team with a losing record.

Daniel Lynch is unlikely to pitch more than a few innings, and the Royals’ bullpen ranks dead last in HR/9.

The Los Angeles Dodgers sit second in OPS this season, and conditions are expected to provide a 14% boost to home runs.

While Eric Lauer has pitched better for LA, he has still conceded 2.15 HR/9. 

Back to -120.

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.