There’s a rookie making his debut on the mound for Washington tonight, so I’ll be fading him as part of my Cubs vs. Nationals predictions.
We’re not seeing much value on the moneyline, so I’ll be riding the Cubs at +101 on the run line over at Polymarket. Let’s take advantage of a rookie arm going up against one of the most potent lineups in baseball.
Time to dive into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.
Who will win Cubs vs Nationals today: Cubs -1.5 (+101)
Today’s analysis is simple: the Chicago Cubs have killed lefties to the tune of a .806 OPS this season, and they’re seeing a rookie pitcher on the mound. The term “fresh meat” comes to mind.
The No. 8 prospect for the Washington Nationals, Jackson Kent, gets the nod. With a career 4.22 ERA in the minors, I’m not expecting him to mow down the team with the highest wRC+ in baseball (111).
Opposite Kent will be David Peterson, who’s held the Nationals to a .243 xBA and .302 xwOBA over 80 at-bats against him, which is a large enough sample size for me to know what we’re going to get tonight. That includes a 4-for-24 (.224 xBA) mark from CJ Abrams.
Looking for more plays? Dive into Colby Marchio’s MLB moneyline picks for Wednesday.
COVERS INTEL: Peterson’s bloated 5.35 ERA is largely due to one start from July, when he allowed 10 earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Since then, he’s only been charged with five earned runs across 28.2 innings pitched.
Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-103)
While I expect the Cubs to feast on the young left-hander tonight, the Nationals will likely need some offense from someone other than Abrams. I’m keying in on Keibert Ruiz, who’s 6-for-17 against Peterson with a .315 xBA.
It helps to know that the Over is 6-0-1 in the Cubs’ last six games as a road favorite — let’s see if that hits for the seventh time.
Cubs vs Nationals home run prediction: Seiya Suzuki (+365)
If you’re looking for a rock-solid home run prediction, it’ll be Seiya Suzuki. The outfielder absolutely rakes against lefties, owning a 1.007 OPS against them this year; coming off a 2-for-5 game with a double and home run, I'm expecting him to stay hot at the plate tonight.
With 103 long balls at Nationals Park this season — good for 11th among all ballparks — while going up against a rookie in his debut, I’ll give Suzuki the tap on the shoulder to hit one out.
- ML/RL bets: 2-4, -2.27 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-3, -0.95 units
Cubs vs Nationals weather
With temperatures nearing 86 degrees Fahrenheit for tonight, we should see a perfect night of baseball in Washington with minimal impact on game conditions.
Cubs vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs (-150) | Nationals (+144)
- Run line: Cubs (+101) | Nationals (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-103) | Under 9.5 (-109)
Cubs vs Nationals trend
The Over is hitting at a 3-0-1 clip across the Cubs' last four games, and it's also hit four straight times when the Nationals are an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Nationals.
How to watch Cubs vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, Nationals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | David Peterson (6-7, 5.35 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Jackson Kent (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Cubs vs Nationals latest injuries
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