After last night's win, the Atlanta Braves (-175 moneyline favorites) look to secure the series win over New York Mets.
My Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12, see Atlanta pull off the win at home.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-175)
Not the sexiest price tag for the Atlanta Braves to come out on top, but I really like this spot.
Tyler Mahle has been lights out over his last five starts, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while doing a great job limiting hard contact and barrels.
On the other side, New York Mets southpaw Zac Thornton has some underlying metrics pointing toward regression. He owns a 2.52 ERA on the year, but his xERA sits at 4.11, according to HandiGraphs.
The Mets’ lineup has been seeing the ball very well over the last week, but with how well Mahle has been pitching, I think he can hold them down.
Plus, the Braves own a 114 wRC+, .333 wOBA and .762 OPS over their last 12 games.
I think this is a great spot for the Bravos.
COVERS INTEL: Five Braves hitters own an OPS above .956 over their last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+101)
I am expecting a pitching duel this evening in Atlanta between Mr. Thornton and Mr. Mahle, as both pitchers have done an excellent job limiting hard-hit balls and, especially, barrels. Across both pitchers’ last five starts, their opponents have stayed under an 8.5% barrel rate.
Even with my concerns about Thornton’s expected numbers this season, he has done a spectacular job of not allowing opposing hitters to generate much hard contact against him.
Both offenses have been outstanding over their last 12 games, but if these pitchers are hitting their spots this evening, I expect runs to be at a premium.
Mets vs Braves home run prediction: Matt Olson (+325)
Another game with slim pickings for long-ball looks, but we’ll go with a bat that has been barreling up lefties a ton over his last 30 plate appearances against them.
That would be Braves slugger Matt Olson, who owns a 26.35% barrel rate, .714 SLG and .464 ISO during that stretch.
Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Thornton has been allowing left-handed bats to produce a ton of hard-hit balls and barrel up his offerings at a 12.5% clip over his last 30 faced. During that stretch, those bats have a .296 xBA, .495 xSLG and .522 wOBA.
“But he homered yesterday.”
Okay? Junior Caminero went back-to-back days with a home run over the last two days. It means nothing!
If you’re looking for a Met, I’m leaning Francisco Alvarez. His barrel rate has been through the roof lately.
- Season Record: 387-752, -17.4 Units
- Home Run Record: 97-346, +8.7 Units
Mets vs Braves weather
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: New York +158 | Atlanta -175
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-142) | Atlanta -1.5 (+124)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (+101)
Mets vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 78% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, BravesVision |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Tyler Mahle (3-9, 4.83 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
