The New York Yankees won a low-scoring series opener on Tuesday, and they're -130 to add to their win total in Game 2.
Both starting pitchers have posted underwhelming results of late, but Will Warren's process is a lot more encouraging.
That's a big reason I'm backing the pinstripes with my Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.
Who will win Mariners vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-130)
Will Warren and Bryce Miller have posted very similar results over the past month. The difference is how they arrived at them.
Warren has been incredibly unlucky, with a strong 2.58 xFIP and 48.9% ground-ball rate wiped out by an unsustainably high .389 BABIP and nearly 40% of baserunners scoring.
Miller owns a 5.24 xFIP over the same time while posting a 50% fly-ball rate and allowing well over two homers per nine.
Both offenses are struggling, so I want to be on the side of the better pitching.
Back the New York Yankees to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Among today's starters, Miller ranks 28th in xFIP the past month.
Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Warren has pitched much better than his results indicate. The tide will turn sooner rather than later, and a matchup with the Seattle Mariners is the perfect time.
They are toothless against righties, posting a .274 wOBA (28th) and 43.1 GB% (24th) the last 30 days.
The Yankees have hit for more power but rank dead last with a .194 batting average over the same span.
While they may capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles at keeping the ball in the park, there’s unlikely to be much traffic on the basepaths.
I make the total 7.8 and would bet to -125.
Mariners vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (+235)
Miller’s Achilles' heel is preventing the home run, ranking in the 27th percentile in HR/9.
Ben Rice has feasted on such opponents all year long. Isolating starters in the 30th or lower, Rice has left the park in nine of 22 games — and six of 13 when facing a righty.
Miller throws the fastball 42% of the time, and Rice is sporting a ridiculous .597 ISO against that pitch.
This is a really nice spot for Rice to come back to life at the plate.
I’d back Rice to +200.
- ML/RL bets: 75-69, -8.70 units
- Over/Under bets: 78-61-6, +8.64 units
Mariners vs Yankees weather
The conditions will provide a boost to hitters as temperatures are expected to reach the 80s with slight winds blowing west.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Mariners +110 | Yankees -130
- Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Mariners vs Yankees trend
New York has hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.60 units, 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryce Miller (4-6, 3.08 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (8-6, 4.18 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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