It's a getaway day for some, and that's a perfect day to find some MLB player props and dig into what's not priced into the pitcher prop markets.
Drew Rasmussen and Eric Lauer will face offenses looking forward to a day off tomorrow, and their Overs are projecting well, while Zack Wheeler was pushed heavily in his last start and should lose some efficiency and leash today.
These are my favorite pitcher strikeout, pitcher props & MLB picks for Wednesday, August 12.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Drew Rasmussen |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | +120 |
 Eric Lauer |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +130 |
 Zack Wheeler |
Under 17.5 outs | +140 |
Strikeout prop: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)
Drew Rasmussen might not go 100 pitches every start, but even with that 90-95-pitch leash, he can rack em up, and he's done so of late. Over his last three starts vs. teams with a big array of K%, the Tampa Bay Rays starter has 27 Ks over his last 20 innings. He has gotten to 5+ Ks in all but two of his last 11 starts since the start of June.
Tampa got a complete game with Nick Martinez last night, as the Athletics lineup has been one of the worst over the last two weeks and a bottom-10 team in K% over that stretch. THE BAT will never like Rasmussen's Overs because of that leash, but his range of outcomes and ability to smash his Overs separates him from other starters.
This price is tough to ignore for a K/inning guy who can get to six frames on a team that hates its bullpen and is looking to win a division.
The All-Star break was perfect for the right-hander as he has allowed just two runs over his last 25 innings and hasn't allowed a run in three straight games. He also gets an Athletics team that might be looking ahead to a day off on Thursday.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rays.TV
Strikeout prop: Eric Lauer Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)
Let's take a swing at another heavy plus-money Over K prop against a Kansas City Royals lineup that got carved up by another lefty last night in Blake Snell, who easily topped his 7.5 K prop with a 10-strikeout outing.
Eric Lauer is not Snell, but the Royals are a light-hitting lineup, and they're looking ahead to a day off tomorrow in California before heading to Anaheim.
THE BAT is projecting Lauer to go Over this number on 87 pitches with a fair price of +125, but the Dodgers should give him a six-inning leash with a pitch count that can reach the upper 90s. There’s a good chance he tops that projected pitch count today.
Lauer is also coming off a bad start at Wrigley, his worst as a Dodger, giving him some motivation on his side. The Los Angeles Dodgers could also be without three relievers today, including two lefties, which makes getting length from Lauer even more important.
I'm taking the Over and looking for Lauer to get through six innings with enough volume to cash this plus-money prop.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNetLA, Royals.TV
Pitcher outs prop: Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 outs (+141)
Sticking with the plus-money on these, this is my favorite fade of the day. Zack Wheeler is coming off an 116-pitch outing against the Blue Jays, which was the most he has thrown in over five seasons. Making that even heavier is that he threw just 110 combined pitches in his two previous outings.
His form has also fallen off that Cy Young pace, as he owns a 5.71 ERA since the break and has gone Over this number just once.
Looking at the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen, there could be a quicker hook than usual, as all but one arm is available and the high-leverage guys need some work.
There are also some lefties in that St. Louis Cardinals lineup who could end Wheeler's day, with JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson in the mix. There should be five lefties in the Cardinals' lineup today.
I love fading pitchers coming off massive workloads, and the distraction about Wheeler not touching the rubber is just another thing that works in this Under's favor. This isn't a coin flip, but 45%-47% looks like the outcome.
- Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 10-13, -2.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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