MLB Picks

The Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians could be in for another quiet first inning after a scoreless opener on Monday. Walbert Urena hasn’t allowed a first-inning run all season, while Cleveland has failed to score in the opening frame in three straight games. Slade Cecconi also tossed a clean first last time out.

Rogers’ 83rd percentile hard-hit rate is a significant factor here and always against New York. Simply put, when you’re able to limit the power swings of the Yankees, then the offense is much more pedestrian. Even though I think they’ll score enough to win by multiple runs, Rogers should be able to keep their offense in check. On the other side, Warren’s elite strikeout rate should navigate the Baltimore lineup effectively as we’ve noted above. I’d play this down to 8 with a projected run total of 7.9.

Paul Skenes has electric stuff, and this matchup against the Colorado Rockies sets up perfectly for a dominant outing. The Pirates ace owns a 2.36 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 42 innings, and Colorado strikes out more than any team in baseball. The Rockies are averaging over 12 Ks across their last three games, giving Skenes strong value to clear this number.

The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds matchup has all the ingredients for an early run. Brady Singer has allowed a first-inning run in four straight starts and owns just a 3-5 NRFI/YRFI record this season. Washington is hitting .315 in the first inning and has scored early in two of its last three games, making this YRFI very appealing.

With the Phillies heating up at the plate, I’m taking the Over tonight. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings, and they scored 22 runs in the weekend series against the Colorado Rockies. That included four homers from Kyle Schwarber, with Alec Bohm and Harper also joining the party.

Philadelphia has also finished with 9+ hits in five of its last six games, so watch for solid production here, with Boston expected to use an opener before turning things over to Brayan Bello. The Red Sox offense is the biggest cause for pause here, but the possible return of Willson Contreras here would give the lineup a boost.

Tonight’s all-lefty battle between Shane McClanahan and Patrick Corbin should lead to a scoreless opening inning. McClanahan has surrendered just one first-inning run all season and enters on a streak of three straight clean firsts. Corbin has also tossed five consecutive scoreless opening frames, while both offenses are batting around .230 in the first inning this year.

Any offensive outburst for the Mets is likely to come before the Tigers' bullpen enters the fray, which was given a much-needed rest day on Monday following a reliever-by-committee approach on Sunday Night Baseball in Kansas City. I have even less faith in the Tigers generating runs off of Peralta, who has held Detroit hitters to a lifetime OPS of .419, and both teams are also a combined 6–14 to the O/U in their last 10 games.

Bobby Witt Jr. at +400 to hit a home run with the wind blowing out to his pull side at Rate Field at 18 mph? Yeah, I’ll gladly hit the button on that number. Erick Fedde has allowed five home runs over his last two starts, and seven of the eight home runs he’s given up this season have come against right-handed hitters. Witt also has notable reverse splits when it comes to power. Twenty-two of the 23 home runs he hit last season came against right-handed pitching. On top of that, Witt has been swinging a hot bat lately, and at +400, this is simply too good of a price to pass up.

The San Diego Padres have had trouble at the plate, however. In their series split with St. Louis over the weekend, San Diego managed just 14 hits—a franchise record low for a four-game series. Like the Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers have been below league average at the plate all season and even worse lately. Milwaukee has a .625 OPS with 88 OPS+ over the last week. The Padres are .590 and 76 over the last seven days.

Mother Nature should help generate some runs in Minnesota today with 19-mph winds screaming out to center field. Eury Pérez has been giving up home runs on fly balls, while Bailey Ober owns a groundball rate that ranks in the bottom half of MLB starters. In fact, both pitchers carry groundball rates below 37%. Add in a Minnesota Twins bullpen sporting a 6.93 ERA over the last two weeks, and the runs could keep coming all game long. THE BAT is projecting 10.32 total runs.

Zac Gallen’s road struggles have been impossible to ignore, carrying a 7.13 ERA away from Arizona, while MacKenzie Gore has pitched much better at home. The D-backs lineup is also ice cold, scoring two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. On top of that, Texas enters with arguably the best bullpen in baseball over the past month, giving them a clear late-game edge.

Let’s head to Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night and grab a +540 Andy Pages dinger in one of the best matchups on the board. Adrian Houser is a bottom-10 starter in baseball right now. He owns the fifth-worst BlastContact% among MLB starters, as hitters are taking aggressive swings and squaring him up consistently. Twenty-one percent of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his xFIP suggests the damage is sustainable. The setting also favors home runs with winds blowing out, and Pages has the third-fastest swing on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the last two weeks behind Shohei Ohtani (+235) and Max Muncy (+340). The Giants' bullpen is also one to target for runs. 

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.