Let's go! We are back in the black for the first time this year after a +520 Julio Rodriguez jack last night. The train has left the station, and it's time to stack some home runs and MLB player props with the weather turning in our favor.
Andy Pages has an elite matchup in a good park vs. one of the worst starters in the league with a bad bullpen. We're adding him to our slate that already included Aaron Judge and an undervalued Andrew Vaughn.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 12.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
+310 |
 Andrew Vaughn |
+610 |
 Andy Pages |
+540 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +14570 |
Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+310)
It’s one of those days where the best hitter in baseball is projecting as +EV to go deep at +240 or better.
Aaron Judge sits right at the top of the home run prop projections at Covers today, and he’ll either face a Baltimore Orioles bullpen game or Trevor Rogers returning from the IL. Either scenario is bad news for the Orioles’ relievers, who are likely going to have to cover plenty of innings.
Only one bullpen has thrown more innings over the last two weeks than the Orioles at 56, and they also own the ninth-worst ERA during that span at 4.66. Their co-closers, Rico Garcia and Anthony Nunez, have both pitched on back-to-back days and are likely unavailable today.
Judge should also benefit from a 7-mph wind blowing out to left field, and Camden Yards still features some of the shortest dimensions in baseball down the lines.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Home run pick: Andrew Vaughn (+610)
Andrew Vaughn has popped up on the projections at Covers for the first time, with a fair home run price around +480 today.
American Family Field ranks as the sixth-best home run park for right-handed hitters, and Vaughn is into his sixth game since missing most of the season, so the rust appears gone. He’s already homered, owns a .880 OPS, and his 35.3% BlastContact rate over the last 14 days ranks second in all of baseball, thanks to an absurd 47.1% SqUpContact rate.
The right-handed bat also gets to attack knuckleballs today, with San Diego Padres righty Matt Waldron on the mound. Waldron’s floater can disappear quickly, and after a strong outing last time out plus a road start here, a rough performance feels more likely than another good one for a pitcher carrying a 7.71 ERA.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV
Home run pick: Andy Pages (+540)
Let’s head to Dodger Stadium and grab a +540 Andy Pages dinger in one of the best matchups on the board.
Adrian Houser is a Bottom-10 starter who owns the fifth-worst BlastContact%, as hitters are taking aggressive swings and squaring him up consistently. Twenty-one percent of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his xFIP suggests the damage is sustainable.
The setting also favors home runs with winds blowing out, and Pages has the third-fastest swing on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the last two weeks behind Shohei Ohtani (+235) and Max Muncy (+340). The Giants' bullpen is also one to target for runs these days.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 13-67 +0.06 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Aaron Judge |
Bet Now +14570 |
| Andrew Vaughn |
|
| Andy Pages |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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