The New York Mets will look to build on a successful road trip as they return home to face the Detroit Tigers tonight.
New York’s offense has a great chance to pounce on struggling right-hander Jack Flaherty, so I’m backing the Mets to take care of business at Citi Field.
Let’s break down this matchup and take a look at my free Tigers vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 12.
Who will win Tigers vs Mets today: Mets (-145)
Jack Flaherty has failed to go longer than five innings in any of his last four starts, posting a 7.71 ERA over that stretch.
Command has been an issue for Flaherty all season, averaging 6.9 walks per nine innings, while hitters have largely stayed patient against the Detroit Tigers' starter, producing just a 24% chase rate against him.
The New York Mets may be struggling on offense, but they have chances to capitalize on the free passes and pressure Flaherty early.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta continues to deliver steady outings, allowing just one earned run over his last 11 innings pitched. He draws a favorable matchup against the Tigers, who are averaging just 2.83 runs over their last six games.
This sets up as a great opportunity for the Mets to secure a much-needed win.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers have hit line drives on just 22.4% of four-seam fastballs — a pitch Peralta throws 54% of the time.
Tigers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
Any offensive outburst for the Mets is likely to come before the Tigers' bullpen enters the fray, which was given a much-needed rest day on Monday following a reliever-by-committee approach on Sunday Night Baseball in Kansas City.
I have even less faith in the Tigers generating runs off of Peralta, who has held Detroit hitters to a lifetime OPS of .419, and both teams are also a combined 6–14 to the O/U in their last 10 games.
- ML/RL bets: 6-13, -7.31 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-10, -3.53 units
Tigers vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Tigers +125 | Mets -145
- Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-170) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+112) | Under 7.5 (-108)
Tigers vs Mets trend
Detroit is 0-4 SU in Flaherty’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mets.
How to watch Tigers vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (0-3, 5.56 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (2-3, 3.12 ERA) |
Tigers vs Mets latest injuries
Tigers vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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