The New York Yankees have lost four straight games and five of their last six as they face the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of a three-game series.
Strikeout-heavy pitchers like New York’s Will Warren have troubled the O’s this season, and my Yankees vs. Orioles predictions expect him to find similar success.
Find out why in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 12.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Yankees -1.5 (+100)
If not for a questionable decision by Aaron Boone last night, we likely would have cashed on the New York Yankees run line. Maybe we wouldn’t get the value of this number today, though.
Will Warren’s profile against this Baltimore Orioles team gives the Yankees run line value, and I’d play to -115.
His 91st percentile strikeout rate should play well against a team with the seventh-highest whiff rate in the sport. He had one of his best performances of the season earlier this year against Baltimore, pitching 6 1/3 innings and striking out nine, while allowing just one earned run.
I see similar dominance today.
COVERS INTEL: Warren has just over a 4.8 walk-to-strikeout ratio this season, which is a big deal against a free-swinging Baltimore lineup.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
While not officially confirmed, Trevor Rogers is expected to get the call for Baltimore tonight.
Rogers’ 83rd percentile hard-hit rate is a significant factor against New York. Simply put, when you’re able to limit the power swings of the Yankees, then the offense is much more pedestrian.
Even though I think they’ll score enough to win by multiple runs, Rogers should be able to keep their offense in check.
On the other side, Warren’s elite strikeout rate should navigate the Baltimore lineup effectively as we’ve noted above. I’d play this down to 8.0, with a projected run total of 7.9.
- ML/RL bets: 16-15, +1.16 units
- Over/Under bets: 20-12, +10.59 units
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -165 | Orioles +139
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Orioles +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The New York Yankees have hit the run line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (4-1, 3.46 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Trevor Rogers (Projected) (2-3, 4.75 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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