MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 7, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+216)
Projection 0.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Jacob Misiorowski throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.
Total RBIs
Nathan Church logo
Nathan Church o0.5 Total RBIs (+354)
Projection 0.39
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the schedule today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nathan Church will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Nathan Church will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Nathan Church's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 14.3%.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Tue, Jul 7 • 6:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong logo
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.23
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's centerfield fences are the 4th-shallowest.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle logo
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kevin McGonigle's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Because of J.T. Ginn's large platoon split, Kevin McGonigle will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
Total Bases
Colby Thomas logo
Colby Thomas u1.5 Total Bases (-280)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Colby Thomas has been pinch hit for in 63% of his appearances when starting against lefty on the mound.. In today's game, Colby Thomas is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (97th percentile).. Colby Thomas will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Colby Thomas has exhibited poor plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 11th percentile with a 6.43 K/BB rate.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
Projection 0.53
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Dominic Canzone has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Dominic Canzone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Meyer in today's game.. Dominic Canzone hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Dominic Canzone has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph EV.
Total Bases
Griffin Conine logo
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.75
Best Odds
Pick made: 34 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Conine in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. This year, Griffin Conine has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 26% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #29 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Esmerlyn Valdez logo
Esmerlyn Valdez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.14
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Esmerlyn Valdez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Esmerlyn Valdez has been hot in recent games, compiling a a 29.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) over the past 14 days.
Total Bases
Michael Harris II logo
Michael Harris II o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 42 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Michael Harris II's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-highest humidity of all games on the slate today (78%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Michael Harris II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.. Michael Harris II has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.1% rate last season to 14.5% this year.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jasson Dominguez logo
Jasson Dominguez o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.57
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jasson Dominguez ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jasson Dominguez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team today.. Jasson Dominguez's launch angle lately (23.5° over the past 14 days) is considerably higher than his 14.5° seasonal figure.. Jasson Dominguez has put up a .323 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Junior Caminero projects as the 15th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Tue, Jul 7 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Daylen Lile logo
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. Considering Tatsuya Imai's large platoon split, Daylen Lile will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Daylen Lile will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Luis Garcia Jr. logo
Luis Garcia Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest right field fences in MLB.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 4th-highest humidity of all games on the slate today at 77%.. Considering Tatsuya Imai's large platoon split, Luis Garcia Jr. will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Cincinnati Reds logo CIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.15
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez logo
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Mets logo NYM Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. logo
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+113)
Projection 2.08
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Bobby Witt Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.8% seasonal rate to 21.1% over the past 14 days.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+174)
Projection 1.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of the day (84%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive talent to be a .320, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .073 gap between that figure and his actual .247 wOBA.. Based on Statcast data, Salvador Perez ranks in the 96th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 36.000.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kahlil Watson logo
Kahlil Watson u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kahlil Watson in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. This year, Kahlil Watson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 8th-worst park in the game for left-handed home runs.. Among all stadiums, Target Field's CF fences are the 10th-deepest.. Among all major league stadiums, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.
Total Bases
Royce Lewis logo
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the highest temperatures of the day at 88°.. Royce Lewis will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Cantillo today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage today.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Tue, Jul 7 • 7:40 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.13
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Colson Montgomery projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Colson Montgomery will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+146)
Projection 0.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #6 stadium in the league for overall righty offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Schultz has a large platoon split.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 7 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Josh Lowe logo
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+302)
Projection 0.36
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Josh Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob deGrom in today's matchup.. Josh Lowe has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.
Total RBIs
Jorge Soler logo
Jorge Soler o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.45
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Jorge Soler ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. In Major League Baseball, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Jorge Soler has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.4-mph figure.. Compared to last season, Jorge Soler has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40.8% to 46.9% this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ San Diego Padres logo SD Tue, Jul 7 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Geraldo Perdomo logo
Geraldo Perdomo o0.5 Total RBIs (+286)
Projection 0.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Geraldo Perdomo will get to bat from his better side against Jhony Brito in today's game.. Over the past 14 days, Geraldo Perdomo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph of late.
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage against Jhony Brito today.. Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Jul 7 • 9:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Casey Schmitt logo
Casey Schmitt o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.59
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.3-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Casey Schmitt tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Miles.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Casey Schmitt will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.3-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Miles throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today's matchup.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Tue, Jul 7 • 10:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Teoscar Hernandez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 96.1-mph in the past 7 days.. Compared to last year, Teoscar Hernandez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 38.8% to 47.5% this season.
Total Bases
Willi Castro logo
Willi Castro o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Willi Castro is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium's centerfield fences are the 9th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Willi Castro has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week.. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 43.9% to 48.9%.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 15 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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