Saudi Arabia vs Mexico World Cup Picks and Predictions: Both Sides Come Out Firing

The World Cup's biggest story so far is the Saudi Arabians. They'll meet Mexico for a pivotal affair on Match Day 3. 

Saudi Arabia defied World Cup odds when they overcame a 1-0 deficit to upset Argentina 2-1. They followed it up with a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Poland, placing them in a "win and you're in" to the Round of 16 when they face off with Mexico.

For the Mexicans, the scenarios are a bit more complicated. They have yet to score a goal in this World Cup appearance and will need a win — along with some help — if they want to advance to the next round. 

What's the best bet for this intriguing Group C matchup? Find out in our World Cup picks and predictions for Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico.

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico odds

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico picks and predictions

Because of the run of so many scoreless halves, a theme has emerged: scoring in this World Cup is down. But when you look at the numbers, it turns out this widespread belief isn't in touch with reality.

As of publication, the average amount of goals scored per contest was set at 2.6. That's the second highest this millennium. So with that in mind, I'll take advantage of a potentially weak market, grab the Over, and make it my best bet. 

An end-to-end encounter should be expected here. Both sides have to win to advance, and both will set up in a way that leads them to chase the game. 

Mexico has yet to score in this World Cup, but it's not because they lack a threat. They did look toothless against Argentina at times, but that was primarily due to setup than anything else. Against the Polish, they dominated possession and ended the day with an xG of .72. They had several opportunities in the box, which they could not convert.

With the likes of Ajax's Edson Alvarez and Napoli's Hirving Lozano, you'd fancy them to find the back of the net at least once, perhaps multiple times. Lozano, in particular, seems like an attractive option going forward. The 27-year-old winger had goal contributions in two of his last three matches for his club side before departing for Qatar.

We've already seen what Saudi Arabia can do, scoring two goals in quick succession against Argentina to open the tournament. They came from unlikely strikes as they finished the match with just an xG of .15: however, it speaks to how clinical they were in front of the net.

In the next game against Poland, the reverse happened. The Saudis created an xG of 1.73 but netted nothing. That xG number was more than any Poland opponent had made against them in their last five outings. In addition, they more than doubled the number of Poland passes in the attacking half and carried nearly 75% of the possession.

In a vacuum, these things translate to a team that can carry a robust attacking threat on any given day. That's pretty impressive for a country ranked outside the Top 50 in FIFA rankings.

The conditions for this matchup are ripe for an Over. It's easy to envision a game that may start slow but will quickly open up. Both sides will open themselves up for attackers because they know they need to score and win. Two teams attacking with little to no regard is what you want when backing the Over, and we're more likely than not to get that here. 

My best bet: SGP: Both teams to score + Over 2.5 (+115 at bet365)

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico side analysis

There is a significant amount of value on the Saudis in this match. A bet on them is a bet on a team that carries the more significant attacking threat. That's pretty attractive, given how the game is expected to play out. As I stated previously, it's not that Mexico lacks an attacking threat, but that they need to be more clinical in front of the goal. They are playing a side that has shown how dangerous they can be with minimal chances. 

Saudi Arabia are flying at the moment. Even though they lost to Poland 2-0, they largely dominated the proceedings. They deserved more than the zero-goal result they ended with and earned at least a point from the showing altogether. Even if it's a small wager, I can't pass up taking a shot on a team playing as well, as they are at a price north of +300. 

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Over/Under analysis

As noted under our best bet section, we're riding the Over paired with both teams to score here. The situational aspect of this match is too much to ignore, and it lends itself heavily to multiple goals. 

Positive game flow will be necessary, but it may lend itself to good live betting opportunities. We could see some caginess from both sides for the first half hour as the two teams looked to find their footing in the game. However, once one side makes an early claim for the lead, this game will spring to life.

Like we've said throughout, you can't discount the desperation for both sides here. The Saudis will be looking to make its second Round of 16, and Mexico will be looking to get there for a record eight consecutive times. Both can make that happen with a win leading to two sides chasing the game. 

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico game info

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico key injuries

Saudi Arabia: No injuries to report.
Mexico: No injuries to report.

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