The Zinedine Zidane revolution continues as two of Europe’s heavyweights go head-to-head on Friday at Stade de France.
My top France vs. Italy predictions point towards a win for the hosts, who are in tremendous form under their new manager.
Read on for my free picks ahead of the Oct. 2 fixture, with kickoff set for 2:45 p.m. ET on FS2.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Top pick: France ML | 69% |
| Over/Under: Over 2.5 | 67% |
| Combo: France ML / BTTS — Yes | 1.45x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
France vs Italy predictions
My France vs Italy top pick: France moneyline (69% probability)
Zinedine Zidane was greeted as the national hero he is when he took over as France's manager last month. The 1998 World Cup and Ballon d'Or winner boasts an almost peerless pedigree in the game and has made a fantastic start as boss of Les Bleus.
In his first match in charge, France beat Turkey 1-0 last week. Zidane then fielded a weaker side in his next match, but it did nothing to halt France's progress as Les Bleus earned a deserved 1-0 victory over Belgium on Monday.
Although Italy will carry confidence into the game following a 4-1 win over Turkey earlier this week, France will field the stronger starting lineup and have far more quality available off the bench.
Back Les Bleus to win outright.
Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (67% probability)
Kylian Mbappe may be sidelined by injury, but France still boast immense scoring potential.
Their other world-class attackers are all available, meaning they will be dangerous from kickoff and off the bench. Four different players made the scoresheet in Italy's 4-1 win over Turkey, showcasing their elite attack.
Italy also conceded 2.89 xG (expected goals) against Turkey and 2.76 against Belgium in their previous match, a 2-0 defeat. Those numbers underline the Italian defensive deficiencies that France will relish exploiting.
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France vs Italy combo
France moneyline
Both teams to score — Yes
France have kept clean sheets in their first two games under Zidane, but they rode their luck defensively in both matches.
Arsenal defender William Saliba is out, while the inexperience of Andy Diouf and Adrien Truffert at left-back could leave France vulnerable.
Italy scored four times in their most recent fixture against Turkey. While they may struggle to contain France's excellent attack, they should be confident of finding the back of the net themselves.
France vs Italy odds
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch France vs Italy
| Location | Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 2, 2026 |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV |
| Weather | Cloudy with light winds and no rain expected. |
France vs Italy key injuries
France: Saliba CB (Out), Tchouameni DM (Out), Mbappe LW (Out).
Italy: Dimarco LB (Out), Raspadori AM (Out), Zaniolo (ST).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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