Mauricio Pochettino's USA youth movement has looked good so far, and he goes for a third win on the trot when they face Mexico on Saturday afternoon.
Our USA vs. Mexico predictions and free picks for the latest edition of the rivalry explain why the favored Americans (40%) have a big advantage, with one of El Tri's best players possibly missing.
Read on for our preview of the Oct. 3 match, with kickoff at 4 p.m. ET.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
USA vs Mexico predictions
My USA vs Mexico top pick: USA to win (40% probability)
Reports came out Wednesday that Mexican wunderkind Gilberto Mora suffered an ankle injury in training, making him a major question mark for Saturday's match.
That makes the 40% probability for a USMNT victory a terrific value, especially given Mexico rested him against Peru specifically for this match.
Pochettino has gotten tremendous play from nearly every American player so far during this break, and Cavan Sullivan will be fresh after coming in as a late sub against Chile.
Mexico managed just 1-1 draws against Colombia and Peru, and the Americans look better—making them a great value in what the market has basically set up as a toss-up.
Play this to 47%.
My USA vs Mexico Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (52% probability)
The Yanks have scored four goals in both friendlies and have seen 3+ goals in seven of their last nine matches.
That trend isn't why I'm backing another higher-scoring affair, but it does indicate why it keeps happening.
Pochettino wants his players to push until the final whistle, and his rotation of hungry young players has led to six of their goals coming after halftime. I expect more of the same here.
Play this up to 54%.
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USA vs Mexico combo
USA to win
Over 2.5
That drive to play until the final whistle also leaves the Americans open at the back at times, and the lack of cohesion will see Mexico contribute a goal to help push this north of the total.
I've got the USMNT taking a 3-1 victory, which will hit us with a solid combo at Kalshi.
USA vs Mexico odds
USA
MexicoOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Mexico
| Location | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Weather | The match is being played in State Farm Stadium, so weather won't be a factor. |
USA vs Mexico key injuries
USA: None.
Mexico: Gilberto Mora CM (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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