The Golden Boot is one of the most bet-on awards at every World Cup, given to the tournament’s leading scorer.
With new stars rising and several legends potentially making their final appearance in 2026, the Golden Boot market is already shaping up as one of the most competitive in recent tournament history.
Early Golden Boot odds are now available, offering bettors a first snapshot of how sportsbooks are pricing elite scorers ahead of the final squad announcements.
We’ve outlined the expected contenders, key scoring trends, and everything bettors should know about the World Cup odds heading into 2026.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds
Golden Boot markets for the 2026 World Cup are now live at bet365. The table below shows the latest prices from bet365 and will update automatically as odds move closer to kickoff.
| Player |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kylian Mbappe |
+600 | 14.3% |
 Harry Kane |
+700 | 12.5% |
 Lionel Messi |
+1200 | 7.7% |
 Erling Haaland |
+1400 | 6.7% |
 Lamine Yamal |
+1400 | 6.7% |
 Cristiano Ronaldo |
+2000 | 4.8% |
 Nick Woltemade |
+2000 | 4.8% |
| Ousmane Dembele |
+2000 | 4.8% |
| Lautaro Martinez |
+2500 | 3.8% |
 Vinicius Jr. |
+2500 | 3.8% |
| Bukayo Saka |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Estevao |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Joao Pedro |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Mikel Merino |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Raphinha |
+3300 | 2.9% |
| Richarlison |
+3300 | 2.9% |
 Romelu Lukaku |
+3300 | 2.9% |
2026 Golden Boot Favorites
Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe is only getting better with age, and he has a very good chance of becoming the first player to win the Golden Boot twice. He netted eight goals in the 2022 World Cup, and with France among the favorites, Mbappe's scoring could propel them to glory this summer.
Harry Kane
You can't talk about England without saying Harry Kane. Kane is in elite form right now for Bayern Munich, and he always seems to show up when it matters the most for the Three Lions. Should England finally bring football home, Kane will likely play a huge part in it.
Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi finished just behind Mbappe in the 2022 Golden Boot race, netting seven. He's already said this is his last World Cup, and given his form this season for Inter Miami, you'd be a fool to bet against him.
Erling Haaland
There is no better pure scorer in the game right now than Erling Haaland. While Kane and Mbappe will get the spotlight, Haaland's goal rate is second to none, and Norway will need him firing to hang with the big boys.
Cristiano Ronaldo
Some would say Cristiano Ronaldo is the most prolific goalscorer in soccer history — and they’d be right. While it’s never wise to bet against Ronaldo finding the net, his role with Portugal is less certain than in past tournaments, making playing time a key variable in Golden Boot markets.
There’s a chance that soon-to-be 41-year-old Ronaldo won’t start for Portugal in the #FIFAWorldCup.
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 12, 2026
Is this the right call by Roberto Martinez? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/9jG6gKXDBn
How the Golden Boot tiebreakers work
Most assists
If two players finish level on goals, the first tiebreaker is total assists, and the player with more goal contributions is awarded the Golden Boot. It rewards attackers who create as well as finish.
Fewest minutes played
If goals and assists are equal, the next tiebreaker is efficiency. The award goes to the player who scored their goals in fewer minutes on the pitch.
FIFA-assigned shared award
If players remain tied after goals, assists, and minutes, FIFA declares a shared Golden Boot. This rarity has only happened once since 1982 and two times if you include the six-way tie at the 1962 World Cup.
Golden Boot trends
- No player has ever won the Golden Boot more than once.
- Since its introduction in 1982, only two players have won the Golden Ball (Tournament MVP) and Golden Boot in the same tournament.
- Just Fontaine holds the record for most goals scored in a single World Cup with 13 in 1958.
- The average number of goals scored at the World Cup by the Golden Boot winner is seven.
- 70% of recent Golden Boot winners scored half or more of their goals in the group stage
- Most winners fall within the age range of 22 to 30 years old.
Recent World Cup Golden Boot winners
| Year | Winner | Country | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kylian Mbappe | France | 8 |
| 2018 | Harry Kane | England | 6 |
| 2014 | James Rodriguez | Colombia | 6 |
| 2010 | Thomas Muller | Germany | 5 |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose | Germany | 5 |
| 2002 | Ronaldo | Brazil | 8 |
| 1998 | Davor Suker | Croatia | 6 |
| 1994 | Oleg Salenko/Hristo Stoichkov | Russia/Bulgaria | 6 |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | Italy | 6 |
| 1986 | Gary Lineker | England | 6 |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Italy | 6 |
Golden Boot betting tips for 2026
Target teams expected to reach the quarterfinals or deeper
This one is pretty straightforward. The deeper you go in the tournament, the more games you play, the more chances you have to score.
Look for penalty takers
Pressure aside, there's no easier route to scoring a goal than a spot kick from 12 yards out. Harry Kane, Lionel Messi, and Erling Haaland are the unquestioned penalty takers for their countries, so that does give them an upper hand.
Favor players with soft group-stage opponents
Seventy percent of recent Golden Boot winners have scored half or more of their goals in the group stage. With the World Cup expanding to 48 teams, not every team belongs, and the elite strikers will be eager to pad their stats.
Not intended for use in MA.
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2026 World Cup Golden Boot FAQs
Kylian Mbappe (+600) is the early favorite to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot.
Kylian Mbappe won the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with eight goals.
Lionel Messi's Golden Boot odds sit at +1200, which is third choice in the betting market.
