We’re onto the third round of games in this UEFA Nations League campaign, with Croatia and England meeting in Rijeka after both teams suffered defeats to Spain over the past week.
Despite those losses, my Croatia vs. England predictions have England taking home all three points as a 54% favorite.
Read on for my free betting picks for Saturday, October 3, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET on VIX.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Croatia vs England predictions
My Croatia vs England top pick: England to win (54% probability)
Croatia are expected to recall Luka Modric to the starting lineup, but while his experience is valuable, his lack of mobility could cause issues for a midfield already lacking dynamism, with Mateo Kovacic alongside him. The age of Croatia’s squad, including 37-year-old Ivan Perisic, could also be a problem against an England side with plenty of speed.
The pace and directness of Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon from wide positions are England’s main threats here. We saw speed undo Croatia when these teams met a few months ago at the World Cup, and not enough has changed in the weeks since to make me confident the result will be any different.
My Croatia vs England Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (57% probability)
Spain hit this Croatia team for four goals in their last game, and crucially, three of those goals came from wide positions, with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams scoring. England, like Spain, have real strength and speed on the flanks, in addition to Harry Kane’s goal threat.
England scored four when these teams met at the World Cup this past summer, and they are now on a run of high-scoring games, with six of their previous seven matches featuring at least three goals. The fact that this game will be played behind closed doors, due to the behaviour of Croatian fans, should also mean a flatter atmosphere and less of a home-field advantage for the hosts.
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Croatia vs England combo
England to win
Both teams to score
With Kane and Jude Bellingham, plus the array of wide talent at their disposal, England should secure the win. The concern is defensively, and both teams should score here, especially with Croatian striker Dion Beljo in electric form, having scored five goals in his past four games for club and country.
Croatia vs England odds
Croatia
EnglandOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Croatia vs England
| Location | Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | VIX |
| Weather | Sunny playing conditions. |
Croatia vs England key injuries
Croatia: None.
England: Ezri Konsa DEF (Questionable)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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