The international break is upon us, and national team call-ups will have a big impact on Major League Soccer heading into a critical Matchday 28.
How will Inter Miami fare without Lionel Messi and six other starters as they face the Columbus Crew? And can the Philadelphia Union stay hot with Cavan Sullivan not there to pull the strings against Orlando City?
We've claimed profit in five of our last seven matchdays, and we're aiming for another winning weekend with our MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 28!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 28
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Atlanta United FC vs  New York City FC |
Draw 27% |
 CF Montreal vs  FC Cincinnati |
Cincinnati 40% |
 Charlotte FC vs  Chicago Fire |
Charlotte 46% |
 Philadelphia Union vs  Orlando City SC |
Draw 16% |
 New York Red Bulls vs  St. Louis CITY SC |
St. Louis CITY 50% |
 Austin FC vs  San Diego FC |
Austin 39% |
 FC Dallas vs  LAFC |
Dallas 43% |
 Houston Dynamo vs  Sporting Kansas City |
Houston 66% |
 Nashville SC vs  Toronto FC |
Nashville 68% |
 Seattle Sounders FC vs  Minnesota United FC |
Seattle 45% |
 Real Salt Lake vs  New England Revolution |
New England 36% |
 LA Galaxy vs  Colorado Rapids |
LA Galaxy 43% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs  Portland Timbers |
San Jose 48% |
 Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs  D.C. United |
Vancouver 79% |
 Columbus Crew SC vs  Inter Miami FC |
Columbus 33% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 28
Atlanta United vs New York City FC pick: Draw
Atlanta lost the entire right side of its defense to injury last week and has its three best attackers out on international duty.
That said, I can't back an NYCFC side when its starting GK has won just one of its last nine in league play. Take the draw here.
CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati pick: Cincinnati
Montreal may be missing more players this weekend than any other side, with five injured and another nine away with their national team.
They've lost five straight in MLS play and will be put to the sword by an FC Cincinnati side with Evander available.
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire pick: Charlotte
The Fire are struggling of late and must now travel to Charlotte without Robert Lewandowski, as he's one of seven players out for the break.
Add in the suspension to Jack Elliott, and it's hard to see a way past a Charlotte side that will have nine of its starters available from last week.
Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC pick: Draw
Philadelphia's 68% probability is mental to me, but Cavan Sullivan's absence is only part of the story. They'll also be without Andre Blake, Neil Pierre, Frankie Westfield, and Danley Jean Jacques, all of whom are away on international duty.
Orlando will have Antoine Griezmann back, and that will be enough to help secure a valuable point on the road.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis CITY SC pick: St. Louis
I'm getting 50% probability on the hottest team in MLS, with only one player away on international duty. Yeah, I'll take that—even on the road.
The Red Bulls have scored just three goals in their last five matches and won't have an answer here with Julian Hall getting called up to the USMNT—one of 10 Red Bulls called up to national team duty, the most of any club in the league.
Austin FC vs San Diego FC pick: Austin
Austin has quietly put together a seven-match unbeaten run in the league, and suddenly, a win on Saturday could see them move into a playoff spot.
San Diego FC got their first point in four matches with a comeback against Inter Miami, and are without GK CJ Dos Santos for this one.
I'll back the hotter team playing at home in a series where the home side has won all three matchups.
FC Dallas vs LAFC pick: Dallas
Dallas are at home on a five-match unbeaten run, and have just four players called away. But one of them is ST Petar Musa, a massive blow to their attack.
The good news for them is that LAFC is hurting even more, with LW Denis Bouanga and ST Son Heung-Min called up as well. Add in Aaron Long's suspension, and this will be a long night for the visitors.
Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City pick: Houston
Both clubs had just one player called away, each to their respective youth squads. That leaves them both at almost full strength.
However, Sporting KC comes into this match after a monumental collapse, and I'm not sure how anyone could back them to get a result.
I'm expecting Houston to win, but this is a NO-PLAY at any probability above 60%.
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC pick: Nashville
This is another NO-PLAY at the current 68% probability, but Nashville should roll at home.
They're losing just CM Patric Yazbek and GK Brian Schwake from their starting XI, while Toronto looks lost without Djordje Mihailovic.
This could get ugly as Toronto loses its third match on the trot. Grab Nashville if the probability dips below 63%.
Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC pick: Seattle
Dejan Jovelic is the only major international absence for the Sounders, whose win last weekend—their first in the league since May 26—has suddenly put them on a six-match unbeaten run.
Minnesota has lost four in a row, coughed up 14 goals over that span, and now sits second-to-bottom in the Western Conference. I see no reason to back them to get a result here.
Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution pick: New England
The sale of Zavier Gozo to Crystal Palace and the season-ending injury to Diego Luna have RSL in free-fall. Injuries and call-ups will see them without 12 players this weekend, making it difficult to end a 0W-3D-9L run in league play since the World Cup.
The Revs will be without injured Jack Harrison and international Dor Turgeman, but Carlos Gil will provide enough quality to secure the win.
LA Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids pick: LA Galaxy
The Galaxy will have nearly all their key players available after last week's road win over Minnesota, and their 11 points from 21 possible have them in a playoff spot for now.
Only RSL and Sporting KC have fewer away points in the Western Conference this season than Colorado's eight, and they've been outscored 8-0 in their last two visits to Dignity Health Sports Park. With GK Zack Steffen out, the visitors are in a rough spot.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers pick: San Jose
San Jose comes in on a five-match unbeaten run, but will be without ST Ousseni Bouda and GK Angus Gunn.
The Timbers have just eight away points all season, however, and GK James Pantemis and CB Finn Surman will be absent from an already leaky defense.
I like the home side, especially while they're sitting below 50%.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United: Vancouver
Our third NO-PLAY of the weekend takes place in Vancouver, which has a staggering 79% probability of winning.
The Whitecaps will have Thomas Müller, Brian White, and Ryan Gauld available. That gives them the vital pieces of their spine and will make them lethal in attack.
DC United will be without ST Tai Baribo, and they've looked absolutely toothless in attack in his absence. This one could get very ugly.
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami pick: Columbus
The market has not properly factored in just how decimated Inter Miami's lineup is.
Lionel Messi, Rodrigo De Paul, Dayne St. Clair, and six others are on international break, while Yannick Bright is suspended. That means seven starters from last week miss out, including their entire midfield.
The Crew will miss only one starter and have looked improved in their last two starts, both victories. This is a great spot to back the home underdogs.
- Moneyline picks: 132-184, -2.82 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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