The 2026 World Cup semifinals are set, and while Spain has punched their ticket to the semis, they now run into a France team that has strengthened its position in Kalshi's latest futures market after reaching the final four without conceding a goal in any of its three knockout-stage matches.
The other side of the bracket sees England taking on Argentina after they took down Norway and Switzerland in the quarterfinals on Saturday.
Before making your World Cup picks, take a look at the latest World Cup odds, favorites, and where the market stands as the road to lifting the trophy enters the quarterfinals.
World Cup odds 2026: Who will win?
| Country |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 France |
39.7% | +152 |
 England |
21.6% | +363 |
 Spain |
20.8% | +381 |
 Argentina |
18.2% | +449 |
Odds as of 7-13. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
- French dominance: After defeating Morocco 2-0, France has successfully clinched a third straight World Cup semifinal appearance.
- Spain stands tall: Spain put their early stumble behind them, winning Group H and reaching the semis after defeating Belgium 2-1 on Friday. Their possession-based style and elite midfield continue to make La Roja one of the toughest outs in the tournament.
- England sends Norway home: Two more goals from Jude Bellingham were enough to advance past Erling Haaland & Co. in the quarterfinals.
- More Argentina magic: Argentina needed extra time for the second time in three matches to get past Switzerland and book their spot in the semifinals.
More World Cup odds
World Cup contenders
Spain
Blessed with elite young talent, including Lamine Yamal and Pedri, La Roja possess one of the highest ceilings in the field. Their ability to control possession, dictate tempo, and limit opponents' opportunities makes them a nightmare matchup in tournament football.
The concern is whether Spain can consistently turn that control into goals against deep, organized defenses. If they find a more clinical edge in the final third, they remain a legitimate threat to lift the trophy.
France
Kylian Mbappe has shown the world what he can do in France's latest wins over Senegal and Morocco, potting three goals for his country.
The biggest concern is at the back, where France can still look vulnerable defensively against organized sides. Even so, nobody will want to face them in the semis, where one moment from Mbappe, Ousmane Dembélé, or Michael Olise can completely flip a game on its head.
England
If not now, then when? England are still searching for their first World Cup title since 1966, but this current core is running out of opportunities together. Harry Kane remains the focal point, while Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka give England one of the deepest attacking groups in the field.
The issue is that we’ve seen this story before. England have consistently entered major tournaments with sky-high expectations only to fall short in the biggest moments. The talent is undeniable, but questions surrounding mentality, tactics, and a potentially difficult knockout draw are keeping skepticism alive around their World Cup odds.
Argentina
The defending champions are well-equipped to defend their title, especially when Lionel Messi looks like he hasn't aged a day since 2022.
Argentina remain one of the most balanced teams in the tournament, built around a strong defensive structure, elite midfield control, and one of the steadiest goalkeepers in the world in Emiliano Martinez.
Perhaps most importantly, they already know how to win these matches. Tournament experience matters, and very few teams are as comfortable navigating pressure-filled knockout games as Argentina. They may not have the flashiest roster in the field anymore, but writing them off would be a massive mistake.
World Cup Golden Boot odds
Golden Boot odds focus on which player will finish the tournament as the top scorer, factoring in team strength, expected minutes, and matchups throughout the knockout rounds. For a full breakdown of contenders and tiebreaker rules, see our World Cup Golden Boot odds page.
World Cup group odds and qualification markets
World Cup group odds let traders target which teams will finish first in their group or qualify for the knockout stage, often at better prices than outright futures. These markets are shaped heavily by group draw, goal differential, and projected paths — all of which are tracked on our World Cup group standings page.
World Cup match odds explained
Match odds differ from futures by focusing on individual games rather than the tournament winner, with pricing that can shift quickly as teams rotate lineups or manage fatigue. Knockout matches bring added volatility due to extra time and penalties, while live trading allows for reactions to momentum swings as matches unfold.
How to trade on the World Cup
Trading on the FIFA World Cup is one of the most popular events in global sports wagering, with markets ranging from outright winners to player props and live in-game odds. Here’s a breakdown of how to predict soccer in the most common ways:
- Outright winner: Pick which nation will lift the trophy.
- Group winner: Back a country to finish top of its group.
- Group exact finish: Predict the exact order of finish (1-4) for each group.
- Match markets: Wager on moneyline, spread, or totals for individual matches.
- Player props: Trade on tournament-long markets such as who will win the Golden Boot or Golden Ball, or individual match props like goals, shots, or bookings.
- To reach quarterfinals/semifinals: Back a country to go deep into the tournament without needing to win it.
Tip: Odds can fluctuate dramatically during the tournament, especially after injuries or upsets, so shopping around for the best line is key.
Who has qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Three countries receive automatic entry as tournament co-hosts:
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
Qualified teams:
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, England, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, Switzerland, Austria, Scotland, Norway, Turkiye, Czechia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Australia, Japan, Korea Republic, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Tunisia, Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Cabo Verde, New Zealand, Panama, Curaçao, Haiti, D.R. Congo, Iraq.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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FIFA World Cup Odds FAQs
France are the betting favorites at +165 to win the 2026 World Cup.
It depends on the market. Betting early can provide value on teams you expect to shorten as public interest grows, while waiting allows bettors to factor in injuries, squad announcements, and late market movement. Many experienced bettors split exposure — placing a small early bet and reassessing closer to the tournament.
Host nations often benefit from automatic qualification, regional familiarity, and fan support, but they are not guaranteed value bets. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are all priced as mid-tier or longshot contenders, with sportsbooks factoring in home advantage while still accounting for overall squad strength.
Brazil have won the most World Cups, with five, while Italy and Germany follow with four wins each.
Only Brazil have successfully defended a men’s World Cup title, winning consecutive tournaments in 1958 and 1962. No nation has repeated as champion since, which is reflected in how cautiously sportsbooks price defending champions like Argentina.
The 23rd edition of the World Cup will take place at 16 venues across the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in penalty kicks over France.
Yes. Six host nations have won the World Cup on home soil: Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), and France (1998).
