Lazio vs Bayern Munich Predictions and Picks: Kane Leads Visitors to First-Leg Victory

Despite falling 3-0 to the Bundesliga leaders on Saturday, Bayern Munich is still a rightful favorite against Lazio to kick off the UCL knockout stages. We break down their chances in our Champions League betting picks below.

Feb 14, 2024 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read
Harry Kane Bayern Munich Champions League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have a Valentine’s Day date in Rome between Lazio and Bayern Munich in the Champions League this Wednesday, February 14.

There won’t be any love between the two sides as they battle to build an advantage to take into the second leg back in Germany. Bayern Munich enter tonight's showdown as winners of Group A while Lazio finished second to Atletico Madrid in Group E, with both teams performing well. 

That sets this game up to be a fun one, but who wins? Don’t miss our Lazio vs. Bayern Munich free betting picks to find out.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich best odds

Lazio vs Bayern Munich picks and predictions

Wednesday’s Valentine’s Day meeting between Lazio and Bayern Munich won’t be a romantic affair but it’s poised to be the most interesting Champions League game this week. We’re talking about two exciting teams meeting and both believe that they can secure a spot in the quarterfinals.

We can’t forget this is only the first of two games between the teams to seal that spot but whoever wins on Wednesday will have a huge advantage ahead of the second leg.

I’m always cautious of taking moneyline bets at odds of -150 or lower but I think we have a very high chance of Bayern winning, certainly higher than the implied probability of 60%.

The home side haven’t had the best of seasons so far and find themselves eighth in Serie A, a whopping 23 points behind the league leaders.

 On the face of it, they’re in reasonably good form, winning three of their past five in the league but a deeper dive shows you they beat a poor Cagliari team, got thrashed by Atalanta, and drew against Napoli who were missing their star man and biggest goal threat in Victor Osimhen.

You could also point to Bayern’s most recent game as a reason to fade them. They had won three Bundesliga games in a row but lost 3-0 away to Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend, a result which now leaves them five points off the top spot. Despite dominating possession, they had just one shot on target and were outplayed by Leverkusen. 

That said, there’s a real difference in quality between Leverkusen and Lazio right now, with Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen team being one of the best on the planet in current form. Bayern should have an easier task against the Italians.

One thing Bayern are very capable of doing is scoring goals. They lead the Bundesliga with 59 goals in 21 games and averaged two goals per game when they won Group A, a group featuring Manchester United, Copenhagen, and Galatasaray, arguably one of the tougher groups in the competition.

We are going to see a Bayern Munich team that is ready to prove a point after the defeat at the weekend and if they play at their best they’ll beat Lazio, a team really struggling for consistency right now.

My best bet: Bayern Munich to win (-150 at TonyBet)

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Lazio vs Bayern Munich same-game parlay

Bayern Munich to win

Harry Kane to score

Matteo Guendouzi to get booked

With Harry Kane, you’re talking about one of the best strikers in the world right now. Since moving to Germany from Spurs last summer, he’s averaged over a goal per game, somehow surpassing the sky-high expectations that people had of him.

He’s scored 24 goals in 21 domestic games and he’s currently got four in the Champions League this season, a goal behind the players tied at the top of the scoring charts. 

The final leg is for Lazio’s Matteo Guendouzi to get booked. The French midfielder starts the bulk of games for the club and is slated to start on Wednesday despite four of his six UCL appearances this season coming from the bench.

Despite just 312 minutes of Champions League action this year, he’s been booked twice, underlining his reputation as a player with a rash temperament. He’s historically had issues with discipline at previous clubs Arsenal and Marseille and in big games, he can sometimes play on the verge of losing his head.

He’s got a tough ask ahead against Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich in the middle of the park, as well as dealing with the likes of Jamal Musiala and Thomas Muller dropping into the half-spaces. It’s a daunting task and he has a high chance of giving away several fouls and getting booked.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich side and Over/Under analysis

My best bet for the game is backing Bayern Munich on the moneyline, so we won’t place our focus there, but if you want to back Lazio, they’re available at +400 with the draw at +309. I certainly wouldn’t touch either of those two bets and have full confidence in a Bayern victory.

The total sees the Over 2.5 goals at -139 with the Under at +118. Lazio’s home games have been incredibly low-scoring this year, with nine of 11 in Serie A staying Under. Just two of their four UCL have gone Over and both of those were games on the road, with just five goals scored in three games at the Stadio Olimpico. 

While Bayern Munich games have seen far more goals, with 85.7% of all their Bundesliga games going Over and four of six in the Champions League doing the same, I’d still lean towards backing the Under.

With Lazio at home, plus the nature of this being a first-leg game and potentially more cagey, it makes sense to take Under 2.5. This feels very much like a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the visitors.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Lazio vs Bayern Munich game info

Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Weather: Good conditions, 52F.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich key injuries

Lazio: Patric CB (Questionable).
Bayern Munich: Serge Gnabry FWR (Out), Konrad Laimer RB (Out), Kingsley Coman RW (Out), Alphonso Davies LB (Out).

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