The Champions League draw is complete, and now we know the path all 36 clubs will have to navigate through the league phase.
Arsenal and Barcelona enter the post-draw market as 20% co-favorites on Kalshi, while two-time defending champion PSG aren't far behind at 17%. Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City round out the top six.
With some massive matchups now set and the market already reacting, let's dive into the latest Champions League odds and see where the value sits after the draw.
Champions League Odds to win the tournament
| Team Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Arsenal |
20% |
 Barcelona |
20% |
 PSG |
17% |
 Real Madrid |
16% |
 Bayern Munich |
13% |
 Manchester City |
10% |
 Liverpool |
6% |
 Manchester United |
5% |
 Atletico Madrid |
3% |
 Inter Milan |
3% |
 Borussia Dortmund |
2% |
Odds as of 8-27. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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2026-27 Champions League draw: Key matchups
The 2026-27 Champions League league-phase draw is complete, giving all 36 clubs their eight opponents for the opening stage of the competition.
There will be no shortage of heavyweight clashes. Two-time defending champion PSG will face Barcelona and Manchester City, while Arsenal drew both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Manchester City will also meet Barcelona, while Liverpool faces Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan.
Each club will play eight league-phase matches — four at home and four away — with the complete fixture schedule and kickoff times still to be announced.
Notable league-phase matchups:
- PSG vs Barcelona
- Manchester City vs PSG
- Barcelona vs Manchester City
- Arsenal vs Real Madrid
- Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
- Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
- Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
- Inter Milan vs Liverpool
Champions League odds market analysis & betting insight
Apparently, back-to-back Champions League titles aren't enough to make PSG the favorites.
Arsenal and Barcelona now sit atop the market at 20% on Kalshi, with PSG close behind at 17%. Real Madrid (16%) and Bayern Munich (13%) aren't far off either, while Manchester City have moved up to 10%.
I'm not going to overreact to the league-phase draw when it comes to picking a Champions League winner, but Arsenal certainly weren't handed any favors. Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and Napoli are all on the schedule, which should give us a pretty good idea of just how serious a contender the Gunners are.
Barcelona and PSG will see each other during the league phase, while both will also have to deal with Manchester City.
And City might be the team that interests me most at the current price. A 10% probability is a big drop from the five teams above them, and while Pep Guardiola's side have Barcelona and PSG on the schedule, I'm not ready to write them off as a legitimate Champions League contender.
The draw is fun to dissect, but nobody wins the Champions League in the league phase.
For now, Arsenal and Barcelona are the favorites. I'm not convinced either should be.
2026-27 Champions League Format
The 2026–27 Champions League format introduces a league-style phase that significantly impacts betting markets and knockout projections.
- 36 teams compete in a single league format (no traditional groups)
- Each team plays 8 matches (4 home, 4 away) against seeded opponents
- 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw
- Top 8 advance directly to the Round of 16
- Teams 9–24 enter a two-leg playoff for the remaining Round of 16 spots
- Knockout rounds follow a two-leg format, with the final decided in a single match at a neutral venue
The Champions League draw takes place on August 27, 2026, with the tournament starting on September 8, and the league portion wrapping up on January 27, 2026.
Past Champions League trends
To get ahead of the pack, there are a few trends that may help you when choosing your Champions League winner:
- Spanish clubs have won the most combined Champions Leagues of any country, with Real Madrid winning 15 and Barcelona winning five.
- Italian club Juventus has been to nine finals, only to lose seven times.
- Six different English teams have won the tournament, the most from one country.
Past Champions League winners
| Team | Year |
|---|---|
| PSG |
2026 |
| PSG |
2025 |
| Real Madrid |
2024 |
| Manchester City |
2023 |
| Real Madrid |
2022 |
 Chelsea |
2021 |
| Bayern Munich |
2020 |
| Liverpool |
2019 |
| Real Madrid |
2018 |
| Real Madrid |
2017 |
| Real Madrid |
2016 |
| Barcelona |
2015 |
| Real Madrid |
2014 |
| Bayern Munich |
2013 |
| Chelsea |
2012 |
| Barcelona |
2011 |
| Inter |
2010 |
| Barcelona |
2009 |
| Manchester United |
2008 |
 Milan |
2007 |
| Barcelona |
2006 |
| Liverpool |
2005 |
| ⚽ Porto | 2004 |
| Milan |
2003 |
| Real Madrid |
2002 |
| Bayern Munich |
2001 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Champions League Odds FAQs
PSG are the +500 favorites to win their third straight title, with Bayern Munich and Arsenal close behind at +600.
Champions League odds tend to shift more dramatically once the knockout rounds begin, as matchups are confirmed and the path to the final becomes clearer. Home-and-away dynamics and draw difficulty play a larger role in pricing than regular-season form alone.
Betting early can offer value before the market fully adjusts to team strength and potential matchups, while betting later provides more certainty once paths and opponents are confirmed. The best timing often depends on whether a bettor is targeting long-term upside or reduced risk.
PSG won the Champions League in 2026, defeating Arsenal 4-2 on penalties.
Real Madrid have won a record 15 Champions League titles, including six over the past 11 seasons.
