Another World Cup tournament is in the books, and Spain ultimately stood tall following their 1-0 defeat of Argentina in the final.
It's Spain's second World Cup victory (the first coming in 2010), and they did it with elite ball control, a strong defense, and nothing short of beautiful to watch football.
Now, 2030 World Cup odds are already available via Kalshi, with that tournament set to be hosted by Spain, Portugal, and Morocco from June 8 to July 21.
World Cup odds 2030: Who will win?
| Country |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Spain |
19% | +426 |
 France |
15% | +567 |
 Argentina |
9% | +1011 |
 England |
8% | +1150 |
 Brazil |
8% | +1150 |
 Italy |
7% | +1329 |
 Netherlands |
7% | +1329 |
 Portugal |
5% | +1900 |
 Norway |
4% | +2400 |
 Morocco |
4% | +2400 |
 Mexico |
3% | +3233 |
 USA |
3% | +3233 |
Odds as of 7-21. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
- Spain looking for a repeat: La Roja are favored early, but no country has won consecutive World Cups since Brazil in the 1960s.
- France won't lay down: After a disappointing semifinal and a blow-out loss to England in the third-place game, Kylian Mbappe & Co. will lick their wounds and come back strong in four years. If there's any solace, Mbappe is now the tournament's all-time scoring leader after capturing his second straight Golden Boot.
- Life after Messi? Argentina are listed third, even with England, but will that change if Lionel Messi hangs up his international cleats? The 39-year-old was arguably the best player on the pitch throughout this year's tournament, and hasn't officially announced whether or not he will return.
More World Cup odds
World Cup contenders
Spain
Spain captured its second World Cup title behind a nearly flawless defensive run, allowing only one goal across the entire tournament. The outlook is just as promising for 2030, with Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsi, Gavi, and Pedri all still years away from their expected primes. With that young core already performing at an elite level, La Roja appears well positioned to make another deep run and challenge to become the first repeat champion since Brazil in 1962.
France
France once again proved why it's among the world's premier footballing nations, reaching the semifinals before ultimately finishing fourth. While Kylian Mbappe will remain the face of the program heading into 2030, he won't have to carry the load alone. Les Bleus continue to churn out elite young talent at every position, giving them one of the deepest player pools in international football. As long as that pipeline remains intact, France will enter the next World Cup as one of the favorites.
Argentina
Argentina have reached the World Cup final in three of the last four tournaments, but the biggest question heading toward 2030 is what life looks like after Lionel Messi. The legendary captain defied expectations once again in 2026, reminding everyone why he's one of the greatest players the sport has ever seen. Whether Messi returns at 43 or decides his international career is complete, the Albiceleste will need their next generation to emerge quickly if they're going to remain among the tournament favorites.
England
England's long wait for World Cup glory continued in 2026, but there's little reason to believe the Three Lions will fade from contention anytime soon. Jude Bellingham is entering his prime, while a talented supporting cast ensures this squad should remain one of the deepest in Europe. Harry Kane's international future will be a storyline to monitor, but England has consistently put itself in position to compete for major trophies. Another deep run in 2030 would hardly come as a surprise.
World Cup Golden Boot odds
Golden Boot odds focus on which player will finish the tournament as the top scorer, factoring in team strength, expected minutes, and matchups throughout the knockout rounds. For a full breakdown of contenders and tiebreaker rules, see our World Cup Golden Boot odds page.
World Cup group odds and qualification markets
World Cup group odds let traders target which teams will finish first in their group or qualify for the knockout stage, often at better prices than outright futures. These markets are shaped heavily by group draw, goal differential, and projected paths — all of which are tracked on our World Cup group standings page.
World Cup match odds explained
Match odds differ from futures by focusing on individual games rather than the tournament winner, with pricing that can shift quickly as teams rotate lineups or manage fatigue. Knockout matches bring added volatility due to extra time and penalties, while live trading allows for reactions to momentum swings as matches unfold.
How to trade on the World Cup
Trading on the FIFA World Cup is one of the most popular events in global sports wagering, with markets ranging from outright winners to player props and live in-game odds. Here’s a breakdown of how to predict soccer in the most common ways:
- Outright winner: Pick which nation will lift the trophy.
- Group winner: Back a country to finish top of its group.
- Group exact finish: Predict the exact order of finish (1-4) for each group.
- Match markets: Wager on moneyline, spread, or totals for individual matches.
- Player props: Trade on tournament-long markets such as who will win the Golden Boot or Golden Ball, or individual match props like goals, shots, or bookings.
- To reach quarterfinals/semifinals: Back a country to go deep into the tournament without needing to win it.
Tip: Odds can fluctuate dramatically during the tournament, especially after injuries or upsets, so shopping around for the best line is key.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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FIFA World Cup Odds FAQs
Spain (+426) are the betting favorites to defend their World Cup title.
It depends on the market. Betting early can provide value on teams you expect to shorten as public interest grows, while waiting allows bettors to factor in injuries, squad announcements, and late market movement. Many experienced bettors split exposure — placing a small early bet and reassessing closer to the tournament.
Host nations often benefit from automatic qualification, regional familiarity, and fan support, but they are not guaranteed value bets. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are all priced as mid-tier or longshot contenders, with sportsbooks factoring in home advantage while still accounting for overall squad strength.
Brazil have won the most World Cups, with five, while Italy and Germany follow with four wins each.
Only Brazil have successfully defended a men’s World Cup title, winning consecutive tournaments in 1958 and 1962. No nation has repeated as champion since, which is reflected in how cautiously sportsbooks price defending champions like Argentina.
The 2030 FIFA World Cup will be jointly hosted across six countries on three continents to celebrate the tournament's 100th anniversary. Spain, Portugal, and Morocco are the primary hosts, while Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay will each host a single commemorative opening match.
Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in Extra Time to win the 2026 World Cup.
Yes. Six host nations have won the World Cup on home soil: Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), and France (1998).
