The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11, and the outright market is already evolving as the outright tournament winner market shifts and moves. France recently surpassed Spain as the favorite to win the World Cup, with an 18.3% win probability at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
With an expanded 48-team field, host-nation advantages, and key roster questions — including uncertainty around Lamine Yamal's fitness and whether Lionel Messi will suit up — this is shaping up to be one of the most fluid futures markets in recent memory.
Below, you’ll find the latest 2026 World Cup odds, current favorites, and a breakdown of how the market is shifting as we move closer to kickoff.
World Cup odds 2026: Who will win?
| Country |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 France |
+446 | 18.3% |
 Spain |
+521 | 16.1% |
 England |
+809 | 11% |
 Argentina |
+942 | 9.6% |
 Brazil |
+953 | 9.5% |
 Portugal |
+1105 | 8.3% |
 Germany |
+1861 | 5.1% |
 Netherlands |
+2603 | 3.7% |
 Belgium |
+4662 | 2.1% |
 Norway |
+4662 | 2.1% |
 Japan |
+5163 | 1.9% |
 Colombia |
+5456 | 1.8% |
 USA |
+5782 | 1.7% |
 Morocco |
+6567 | 1.5% |
 Croatia |
+7592 | 1.3% |
 Mexico |
+7592 | 1.3% |
 Uruguay |
+9000 | 0.9% |
 Switzerland |
+10000 | 0.8% |
Odds as of 5-20. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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World Cup odds quick links
- Favorites tightening: France surpassed Spain in the trading market in late April, with England being the only other team with a 10% or greater win probability
- Defending champs priced cautiously: Argentina remain among the top contenders, but traders are hesitant to shorten them further given the difficulty of repeating
- Public vs. sharp split: Spain and England are drawing heavy ticket volume, while France continues to attract stronger handle share.
- Path matters: Several price shifts reflect projected knockout routes and perceived winners and losers of the draw.
Breaking down the World Cup favorites
France (+446)
Kylian Mbappe is a match-winner on his day, which gives France a leg up on the rest of the competition. They've got an embarrassment of attacking riches, but defensively is where the issues lie. Nobody will want to play them in a winner-take-all game.
Spain (+521)
Fresh off their Euro 2022 triumph, La Roja are showing no signs of slowing down. Blessed with elite talent, including Lamine Yamal, Spain's style of play is conducive to tournament football.
England (+809)
If not now, then when? England are looking to win their first World Cup since 1966, and the team is only getting older. Harry Kane leads the line in possibly his final World Cup tournament, but a tough draw and continuous failures have people skeptical of their current World Cup odds.
Argentina (+942)
The defending champions are well-equipped to defend their title even if Lionel Messi doesn't feature prominently. They've got an elite defense and a solid goalkeeper, which goes a long way in tournament football.
Brazil (+953)
It feels like an eternity since Brazil lift the World Cup in 2002. With Carlo Ancelotti at the helm, Brazil is in good hands, but their play has been lacking any real conviction. Still a dangerous team to play.
World Cup Golden Boot odds
Golden Boot odds focus on which player will finish the tournament as the top scorer, factoring in team strength, expected minutes, and matchups throughout the knockout rounds. For a full breakdown of contenders and tiebreaker rules, see our World Cup Golden Boot odds page.
World Cup group odds and qualification markets
World Cup group odds let traders target which teams will finish first in their group or qualify for the knockout stage, often at better prices than outright futures. These markets are shaped heavily by group draw, goal differential, and projected paths — all of which are tracked on our World Cup group standings page.
World Cup match odds explained
Match odds differ from futures by focusing on individual games rather than the tournament winner, with pricing that can shift quickly as teams rotate lineups or manage fatigue. Knockout matches bring added volatility due to extra time and penalties, while live betting allows bettors to react to momentum swings as matches unfold.
How to trade on the World Cup
Betting on the FIFA World Cup is one of the most popular events in global sports wagering, with markets ranging from outright winners to player props and live in-game odds. Here’s a breakdown of how to bet on soccer in the most common ways:
- Outright winner: Pick which nation will lift the trophy.
- Group winner: Back a country to finish top of its group.
- Group exact finish: Predict the exact order of finish (1-4) for each group.
- Match markets: Wager on moneyline, spread, or totals for individual matches.
- Player props: Trade on tournament-long markets such as who will win the Golden Boot or Golden Ball, or individual match props like goals, shots, or bookings.
- To reach quarterfinals/semifinals: Back a country to go deep into the tournament without needing to win it.
Tip: Odds can fluctuate dramatically during the tournament, especially after injuries or upsets, so shopping around for the best line is key.
FIFA World Cup 2026 splits
Per BetMGM, Spain is the most-bet tournament winner with 13.4% of bets but only 11.1% of the handle.
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
- Spain – 13.4% of bets, 11.1% of handle
- England – 13.2% of bets, 9.2% of handle
- France – 12.5% of bets, 12.9% of handle
- Portugal – 9.9% of bets, 8.3% of handle
- USA - 6.3% of bets, 3.1% of handle
Fellow hosts Mexico (+6600) has 1.9% of bets and 0.8% of handle, and Canada (+15000) has 1.3% of bets and less than 0.3% of handle.
Who has qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Three countries receive automatic entry as tournament co-hosts:
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
Qualified teams:
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, England, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, Switzerland, Austria, Scotland, Norway, Turkiye, Czechia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Australia, Japan, Korea Republic, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Tunisia, Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Cabo Verde, New Zealand, Panama, Curaçao, Haiti, D.R. Congo, Iraq.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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FIFA World Cup Odds FAQs
Spain (+450) sit ahead of France (+500) and England (+600) as the early favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
It depends on the market. Betting early can provide value on teams you expect to shorten as public interest grows, while waiting allows bettors to factor in injuries, squad announcements, and late market movement. Many experienced bettors split exposure — placing a small early bet and reassessing closer to the tournament.
Host nations often benefit from automatic qualification, regional familiarity, and fan support, but they are not guaranteed value bets. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are all priced as mid-tier or longshot contenders, with sportsbooks factoring in home advantage while still accounting for overall squad strength.
Brazil have won the most World Cups, with five, while Italy and Germany follow with four wins each.
Only Brazil have successfully defended a men’s World Cup title, winning consecutive tournaments in 1958 and 1962. No nation has repeated as champion since, which is reflected in how cautiously sportsbooks price defending champions like Argentina.
The 23rd edition of the World Cup will take place at 16 venues across the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in penalty kicks over France.
