Sweden vs Poland Euro 2020 Tips and Predictions: Can Poland Crack the Stout Swedish Defense?

Poland needs a win for a chance to advance to the knockout stage, but that requires scoring against a Sweden side that has not conceded a goal yet — so our Euro 2020 picks don't see much action happening... at all.

Posted: Jun 22, 2021 12:39 PM ET Updated: Jun 23, 2021 11:00 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Robert Lewandowski Poland Euro 2020
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The most fascinating group in the Euro 2020 competition wraps up round-robin play Wednesday with any number of qualifying scenarios still in play.

Sweden and Poland tangle at Saint Petersburg Stadium with both teams having plenty at stake. Sweden leads Group E and has all but assured itself a spot in the knockout round, but can still relinquish top spot in the group to either Slovakia or Spain, who also face off Wednesday.

The Polish side has just one point through two games but could still reach the Round of 16 with a win and either a Spain or Slovakia loss. Add in the fact that Euro 2020 odds have this game as a near-coin flip, and the intrigue is abundant.

Keep reading for our tips and predictions for Sweden vs. Poland on June 23.

Sweden vs Poland game info

Location: Saint Petersburg Stadium, St. Petersburg, Russia
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

Sweden vs Poland betting tips

  • Draw (+230)
  • Under 2.5 (-150)

Read on for complete analysis

Sweden vs Poland odds

Sweden: +190
Poland: +150
Draw: +230

Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +120
Under 2.5: -150

Odds as of June 22, 2021, at 12:03 p.m. ET.

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Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline is a close one at PointsBet USA, with Poland a +160 favorite, Sweden a +170 pup and Draw +225. And both sides are getting attention, with the Swedes drawing 42 percent of bets and 38 percent of dollars, and Poland attracting 40 percent of bets and 53 percent of cash. Draw is taking 18 percent of bets/9 percent of money. The total is at 2.5 (Under -165) while seeing ticket count and money both in the 2/1 range on the Under.

Sweden vs Poland betting preview


it could be a messy one in Russia on Wednesday, with a 50 percent chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms and temperatures expected to be in the low-90s. A 9 mph wind is expected, as well.

Key injuries

Sweden: Mattias Svanberg (Doubtful).
Poland: Arkadiusz Reca (out), Arkadiusz Milik (Out), Krzysztof Piatek (Out), Krystian Bielik (Out), Jakub Moder (Doubtful), Lukasz Fabianski (Doubtful).

Sweden vs Poland matchup

Sweden   Poland
18 World Ranking 21
1 Goals For 2
0 Goals Against 3
1-0 Win vs. Slovakia Previous Game 1-1 Draw vs. Spain
Alexander Isak Player to Watch Robert Lewandowski

Moneyline pick

For a team boasting one of the most impressive scoring threats on the planet in Robert Lewandowski, Poland have looked surprisingly pedestrian so far — though their 1-1 draw with Spain kept their chances of a knockout round berth alive and well. They'll face a stiff challenge, however, from a Swedish side that has not relinquished a single goal through its first two games.

That said, the Swedes have had all sorts of trouble generating much of an attack, and that could hurt them here. They'll certainly have their hands full with the uber-talented Lewandowski, and the return of skilled midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak from a one-game suspension will make the Poland side even more dangerous here.

Don't be surprised to see Sweden double down at the defensive end and play primarily for the single point (though they certainly won't turn down an opportunity to strike on the counter-attack if given the opportunity). Poland will need to press given that their only path to the Round of 16 is through victory Wednesday, and Sweden will need to be ready for the pressure.

Neither side has a measurable advantage here, so we like this one ending in a draw.

PREDICTION: Draw (+230)

Over/Under pick

The Swedish game plan will be a simple one: neutralize Lewandowski. He had six goals for Poland in Euro 2020 qualifying — only 11 players had more — and he'll be relied upon heavily to help Poland secure its first win over Sweden since 1974.

Whether the Swedes are successful on the counter, they're more than capable of keeping Poland at bay up front, having recorded clean sheets in each of their previous four European Championship games dating back to the end of qualifying. That includes keeping Spain scoreless despite seeing their heavily-favored opponents control the ball a whopping 85 percent of the time.

This feels like a scoreless draw waiting to happen, so we're eagerly siding with the Under.

PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (-150)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 12:03 p.m. ET

Euro 2020 betting sites

As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.

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