2026-27 LIGA PORTUGAL PICKS

The new season kicks off on Friday and I'm starting off with a total;

FRI AUG 7th 

1. Estoril/Famalicao UNDER 2.5 @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Bet365

Seven of the last nine games for both sides in all competitions ended under 2.5 goals. The last head to head encounter was in Estoril where Famalicao won 1-0. Last season matches for Famalicao averaged only 2.1 goals per game and in away games a league low 1.90 goals per game. Estoril's top scorer with 20 goals which was 3rd best in the league last season in 31 starts is rumored to be a transfer target so who knows where his heads is at at the moment. After him Estoril's top scorer had only 6 goals last season.

DJ

@docpj72

@SPERRL

 Thanks D-Jack I followed you that play 

SAT AUG 8th 

2. Maritimo/Casa Pia UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Pinnacle

Newly promoted Maritimo host Casa Pia in an early kick off that points to a low scoring match. Both sides have had 7 of their last 10 games go under 2.5 goals. Casa Pia have only scored 31 goals in 24 matches last season where as Maritimo only allowed 29 goals against in 34 games last season. Maritimo's matches have averaged 2.3 goals per game last season and Casa Pia 2.6. Thinking 1-1 or 1-0 for the home side. 

DJ

  DJ

SAT AUG 8th 

3. Guimaraes/Arouca UNDER 9.5 corners @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Pinnacle

This is a numbers play for me as well as a formation play. Last season the home side Vitoria Guimaraes averaged 8.3 corners per match, where as Arouca averaged 8.9. The two head to head games yielded 7 and 4 corners. Looking at the lineups both sides are starting pretty conservative sides and formations. Arouca will most likely defend here as the home side are rightfully slight favourites. 

@SportsTimeOut

@docpj72

@jersey_dude

@SPERRL

DJ

@DiamondJack

SUN AUG 9th 

4. Porto/Alverca UNDER 9.5 corners @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Bet365

5. Porto/Alverca UNDER 3 total goals @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Bet365

6. Porto Win to Nil @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365

Last season Champions Porto start their campaign at home where they were undefeated. Despite not having a single player in the top 7 goal scorers it was defense that won out only giving up a league low 18 goals. They won both their matches versus Alverca 1-0 and 3-0. Form wise Porto have had 7 of their past 10 games go under 2.5 & Alverca have had 8/10 go under 2.5. Corner wise they had 9 and 4 in both head to head meetings. Porto averages 8.6 corners per game and Alverca 8.9. As far as goals last season Porto averaged 2.5 & Alverca 2.6 per game. I had the goal total set at 2.75 & the corner total at 8.5.

@docpj72

@Roni7722110

MON AUG 10th  

7. Santa Clara ML @ 1.97/-103 (1u) Pinnacle

I was waiting to see if there was anything odd in the lineups prior to backing the home side. I had the game set @ 1.80/-125, so getting this at almost evens equals value. Head to head Santa Clara won 2-0 just this past May and prior to that 1-0 on the island. Form wise Santa Clara have 4 wins 1 draw in their past 5, where as the visitors are winless in their last six.

Good luck DJ

DJ

@DiamondJack

SUN AUG 30th  

8. Casa Pia/Moreirense to DRAW  @ 3.15/+215 (1u) Pinnacle

Both of these teams are in poor form and the impetus here will be not to lose first and win second. I expect a very low scoring game. Casa Pia are yet to score in league play this season and Moreirense are also coming of their last match where they were shut out. The last head to head game also ended level at 1-1.

DJ

MON AUG 31st

9. Benfica/Estoril UNDER 10.5 corners  @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Bet365

Benfica has averaged 9.8 corners per match last season. Estoril has averaged 9.2 total corners. The last head to head match in Lisbon had 10 total corners. I set the line at 9.5 so I believe we are getting a full corner of value.

Good luck Diamond