Slovakia vs Spain Euro 2020 Tips and Predictions: Lame Spain Set For Pain

Spain has disappointed through two Euro 2020 games and now tries to crack a stout Slovakian side. With Spain likely dominating ball control, we're betting on some Slovakian defenders catching a booking — but we're not confident either side prevails.

Sam Farley
Posted: Jun 22, 2021 9:28 AM ET Updated: Jun 23, 2021 10:45 AM ET Est Time: 5 min
Tomas Hubocan Slovakia Euro 2020
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Every team in the group is still in contention to qualify for the last 16 of Euro 2020, so it all comes to a head for Group E on Wednesday — including Spain hosting Slovakia in Seville.

One of the hottest contested groups of the group stage, Group E has seen no team win both of their first two games, and every side has at least one point.

Playing at home should give Spain a boost, but successive draws to Sweden and Poland in Seville make you question how important home advantage is. Slovakia also has hopes (albeit long Euro 2020 odds) of reaching the latter stages after beating Poland 2-1 before succumbing to Sweden.

Can Spain get their first win of the tournament against Slovakia? Keep reading for our tips and predictions for Slovakia vs. Spain on June 23 to get our thoughts.

Slovakia vs Spain game info

Location: Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

Slovakia vs Spain betting tips

  • Draw (+550)
  • Tomas Hubocan to be booked (+333)

Read on for complete analysis

Slovakia vs Spain odds

Slovakia: +1,600
Spain: -550
Draw: +550

Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: -150
Under 2.5: +120

Odds as of June 22, 2021, at 8:46 a.m. ET.

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Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

About an hour before match time, Spain is a heavy -500 favorite at PointsBet USA, with Slovakia a massive +1,300 underdog and Draw +550. But bettors are laying the heavy lumber with the Spanish side, to the tune of 93 percent of tickets and 96 percent of money. Slovakia is getting 4 percent of tickets/2 percent of cash and Draw 3 percent of tickets/2 percent of money. The total is at 2.5 (Over -155), with 62 percent of tickets on the Under and 56 percent of money on the Over.

Slovakia vs Spain betting preview


We’re expecting to see temperatures in the region of 86 degrees as the Spanish sunshine beats down in Seville. The temperature could increase further as the game progresses.

Key injuries

Slovakia: Ivan Schranz (Out), Denis Vavro (Out).
Spain: Sergio Busquets (Questionable).

Slovakia vs Spain matchup

Slovakia   Spain
36 World Ranking 6
2 Goals For 1
2 Goals Against 1
1-0 Loss vs. Sweden Previous Game 1-1 Draw vs. Poland
Marek Hamsik Player to Watch Pedri

Moneyline pick

Whether it’s the European Championships or a World Cup, there is always one big-name nation who disappoints — and it looks very much like that could be Spain in 2021.

In the opening game of their campaign, they drew 0-0 with Sweden, with Atletico Madrid striker Alvaro Morata missing an easy opportunity to break the deadlock. Missing the target has become a feature of Morata’s career and although he redeemed himself with a goal against Poland on Saturday, he isn’t an elite striker.

The issues with Spain haven’t just been the fault of Alvaro Morata. The midfield, despite featuring Koke, Pedri and Rodri, has looked devoid of creativity. Spain gave the world tiki-taka but this side feels like they’re retaining possession too much and not taking any risks at all to create decisive chances.

Slovakia, meanwhile, have outperformed all expectations: they’ve looked well-drilled and defensively tight. They may not have the most exciting attack in the world but they’ve been excellent at frustrating their opponent’s offensive efforts.

Spain will dominate possession in this game, just as they have in both games so far, but Slovakia will be content to let them keep it and defend with 11 men behind the ball. Spain haven’t showed enough of a cutting edge and Slovakia will be confident that they can contain Wednesday’s illustrious opposition.

Spain are -550 favorites and should on paper win this game. If Pedri can deliver some of the magic we saw for Barcelona this year then he could pick holes in Slovakia’s defense. However, -550 odds imply that Spain should win this game 84.62 percent of the time and, unfortunately, that just doesn’t ring true for this Spanish side. They play too safe, take too few risks and look blunt in attack — I’d put their chances of winning closer to 70 percent.

When it comes to placing a wager on this game you simply have to back the draw at +550. The chances of a draw are substantially higher than the 15.4-percent implied probability and the defensive organization of Milan Skriniar (last seen winning Serie A with Inter Milan) could really be a problem for Spain, who have really struggled to bypass teams with good defensive structure.

PREDICTION: Draw (+550)

Player prop pick

When it comes to a prop pick for this game there’s only one place that you need to look at — and that’s Slovakia’s defense.

Referee Bjorn Kuipers has shown four cards in his only appearance so far at Euro 2020 and he’ll have the opportunity to show more against a Slovakian team who’ll be defending frantically all game. Spain will dominate possession, tiring Slovakia, and you’d think that multiple Slovakian players are likely to see their names go into the referee’s book.

Of that Slovakian XI, it’s Tomas Hubocan who looks the most likely to get booked. He’s already had form at Euro 2020, having received a booking in the opener against Poland.

The 35-year is likely to be lining up on the left side of Slovakia’s defense, which will likely see him facing Manchester City’s Ferran Torres. Torres is lightning quick and will be trying to use his pace against the aging legs of Hubocan.

Torres is a great dribbler and his speed and direct style feels like the worst possible matchup for Hubocan, who is surely set to pick up a booking, especially with Spain dominating ball control.

PREDICTION: Tomas Hubocan to be booked (+333)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 5:22 a.m. ET

Euro 2020 betting sites

As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.

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