Portugal vs France Euro 2020 Tips and Predictions: Group of Death Reaches the End

The Group of Death ends with a rematch of the Euro 2016 final, with Portugal facing France and not certain of progressing. Can the defending champions get a result? Check out our tips and predictions.

Posted: Jun 22, 2021 8:03 PM ET Updated: Jun 23, 2021 1:10 PM ET Est Time: 5 min
Kylian Mbappe France national team soccer Euros
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Group F, the Group of Death at this year's Euros, will come to an end with one of the most highly anticipated group stage games and a repeat of the final in 2016. Group leaders France will take on third-place Portugal, with France looking to secure the group and Portugal still looking to clinch progression.

Keep reading for our Portugal vs. France tips and predictions. 

Game info

Location: Puskás Aréna, Budapest, Hungary
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, TSN

Portugal vs France betting tips

  • France (+125)
  • Over 2.5 (+120)

Read on for complete analysis

Portugal vs France match odds

Portugal: +280
France: +125
Draw: +190

Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +120
Under 2.5: -150

Odds as of June 22, 2021, at 2:55 p.m. ET.

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Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

As of 1:15 p.m. ET on match day, France is +107 chalk, Portugal is a +290 underdog and Draw is +230 at TwinSpires Sportsbook. The French side is attracting 69 percent of bets and 65 percent of cash on the three-way moneyline. The total is at 2.5 (Under -139), with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Under.

Portugal vs France betting preview

Weather

It will be a scorching hot day in Budapest for this one, with 35 percent humidity and temperatures expected around 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

Key injuries

Portugal: No injuries to report.
France: No injuries to report. 

Matchup

Portugal   France
5 World Ranking 2
5 Goals For 2
4 Goals Against 1
4-2 loss vs. Germany Previous Game 1-1 vs. Hungary
Bruno Fernandes  Player to Watch Kylian Mbappe

Portugal vs France predictions

Moneyline pick

At worst, France is guaranteed to go through as a third-place team, but they can still top the group and will look to do just that in a rematch of the 2016 Euro final. The defending World Cup champions have put together a decent tournament through two games.

Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema, and Antoine Griezmann's partnership in attack is still in its early stages, but the interchangeability they have together has already led to a few dangerous moments. Corentin Tolisso's likely insertion into midfield against Portugal should enable Griezmann to play further forward, as he has dropped deep quite consistently with Adrien Rabiot in midfield offering little. 

Each time a new opponent is up next for France, they should be fearful, as it seems like just a matter of time until they click and tear a team apart — much like Germany did to Portugal. While Portugal surely will not repeat their approach against Germany, with Mbappe and Griezmann even more threatening on the flanks than Germany's wingbacks and Benzema just as adept at finding space as Thomas Muller and Kai Havertz, it may not matter.

Portugal has world-class talent from front to back, and Cristiano Ronaldo's waning importance within the team could only be seen as a good thing ahead of the Euros. Instead, Ronaldo delivered a match-saving performance against Hungary and was one of Portugal's most dangerous players against Germany. Though Ronaldo continues to amaze, it has come in a pedestrian tournament from Portugal: the scoreline against Hungary flattered them and really, so too did their two goals against Germany. 

The defending champions may sneak through as a third-place team, but the class of the Group of Death will get the result and the top spot in the group after the third matchday. 

PREDICTION: France (+125)

Over/Under pick

After a cagey opening match against Germany, in which they won 1-0, France managed just another goal in a disappointing 1-1 draw against Hungary. However, France was unlucky not to put more past Hungary, as they finished with an expected goals of 2.70 while getting 11 shots off. Mbappe looked especially threatening, and despite consecutive good performances to begin the Euros, he is without a goal in this tournament.

The talent of Mbappe, and the newness of the Mbappe-Benzema-Griezmann front three, should give France hope a breakthrough is coming for a team that oozes talent going forward. Plus, midfielder Adrien Rabiot, who was given the first chance to replace Blaise Matuidi in midfield alongside Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante, is set to be dropped, which will only help France's ball progression after Rabiot struggled through two tournament games.

Portugal cannot repeat their approach from the loss against Germany, as to sit deep again would be to get torn apart by a France team that boasts far more talent in attack than Germany. While it will allow them to be more competitive in this one, after they were throttled by Germany, it will also lead to a more expansive game.

With two of the most talented teams in the world going at one another openly in this one, take the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 2.5 (+120)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 6:15 p.m. ET

Euro 2020 betting sites

As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.

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