Premier League Matchweek 4 brings a little bit of everything, from heavy favorites to a few spots where the draw or an underdog makes more sense.
After factoring in early-season form, injuries, matchup history, and midweek Champions League and Carabao Cup action, here are my Premier League moneyline predictions for all 10 matches.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 4
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Aston Villavs  Nottingham Forest |
43% |
 Bournemouthvs  Brentford |
Draw 27% |
 Chelseavs  Hull City |
80% |
 Crystal Palacevs  Ipswich Town |
52% |
 Liverpoolvs  Fulham |
68% |
 Tottenhamvs  Everton |
27% |
 Sunderlandvs  Arsenal |
67% |
 Coventry Cityvs  Brighton |
52% |
 Manchester Unitedvs  Manchester City |
46% |
 Leeds Unitedvs  Newcastle United |
Draw 28% |
Percentages courtesy of DK Predicts, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 4
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest pick: Aston Villa
Aston Villa finally showed some life in front of goal on Tuesday, scoring three times and putting nine shots on target in a 3-2 Champions League win at Club Brugge. That came after Villa managed just one shot on target through their first three Premier League matches. Forest have the rest advantage, but they're still searching for their first league win. I'm betting Villa's midweek breakthrough carries over at home.
Bournemouth vs Brentford pick: Draw
Bournemouth haven't lost at home in 13 straight matches across all competitions, but that doesn't mean they've been automatic winners. Seven draws during that run tell the story. Brentford are also unbeaten in the Premier League this season and have consistently been a difficult matchup for Bournemouth. The Cherries should have enough to protect their home streak, but there's not enough separating these teams for me to back either side. I'll take the draw.
Chelsea vs Hull City pick: Chelsea
Hull have been one of the early surprises, taking seven points without conceding a Premier League goal. Stamford Bridge is a different test. Chelsea scored six times in Wednesday's cup win over Leeds despite making nine changes, meaning most of their regular starters avoided a heavy workload. Hull also played Tuesday and enter with several injury concerns. Their defensive start deserves respect, but Chelsea have too much attacking quality for me to call for the upset.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town pick: Crystal Palace
Ipswich have allowed seven goals over their last two Premier League matches, and that's a problem against a Palace side starting to find some momentum. The Eagles followed their comeback win over Fulham with a 3-0 cup victory Tuesday and now return to Selhurst Park. Injuries to Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr lower my confidence, but Ipswich haven't shown enough defensively for me to trust them away from home. I'll back Palace.
Liverpool vs Fulham pick: Liverpool
The turnaround isn't ideal for Liverpool after playing Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, but at least they didn't have to travel. More importantly, this is a terrible matchup for a Fulham side that's lost its first three Premier League matches and conceded seven goals. Liverpool's attack is starting to click, with Alexander Isak already scoring three league goals. Fulham have created chances, but their defensive mistakes are exactly the kind Liverpool can punish at Anfield.
Tottenham vs Everton pick: Everton
At some point, Tottenham have to show me something before I keep paying for their name. Spurs have gone 270 Premier League minutes without scoring and now enter this matchup with several attacking injuries. Everton haven't lost through three matches and just earned a point against Manchester United. Tottenham will have plenty of the ball at home, but possession hasn't translated into goals. Until that changes, I'm happy taking my chances with Everton at the bigger price.
Sunderland vs Arsenal pick: Arsenal
This is a tougher spot for Arsenal than the names suggest. The Gunners played Wednesday night in Naples and now travel again to face a Sunderland side that's taken four points from its first three matches. Sunderland also had an extra day of recovery after playing Tuesday. Still, Arsenal have allowed just one Premier League goal and showed in Naples they don't need to dominate offensively to win. The schedule worries me, but the talent gap wins out.
Coventry City vs Brighton pick: Brighton
Coventry have been more competitive than their 0-3 record suggests, including a narrow 1-0 loss at Manchester City. The problem is they still haven't scored a Premier League goal. Brighton enter unbeaten, have already scored six times, and didn't have a midweek match to worry about. Coventry have shown they can hang around defensively, but eventually they need to create something going forward. Until I see it, Brighton are the more trustworthy side.
Manchester United vs Manchester City pick: Manchester City
Manchester United made easy work of Sabah on Thursday, so I'm not overly worried about the physical toll of that match. The schedule still favors City, though. They played Tuesday in Porto and have two extra recovery days before the derby. City are also perfect through three Premier League matches, with Erling Haaland already in form. United can make this uncomfortable at Old Trafford, but City have been the more complete side and get the rest advantage.
Leeds United vs Newcastle United pick: Draw
There isn't much separating these teams through three matches. Both are unbeaten, both have five points, and together they've already played four draws. Newcastle have more individual attacking quality, but injuries to Dan Burn and Joelinton matter, especially going into Elland Road. Leeds have their own absences and haven't done enough for me to back them outright either. With both teams getting plenty of recovery after their midweek cup games, I'm expecting another tight one.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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