We are now entering crunch time for the Major League Soccer campaign. With most clubs having just 10 matches remaining before the end of the regular season, the push for playoff spots is intensifying.
This weekend's slate is headlined by a showdown between the Top 2 teams in the Eastern Conference, then capped off by what should be a highly entertaining fixture between San Diego and the red-hot Philadelphia Union.
Let's dive into my MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 25!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 25
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Inter Miami vs  Nashville |
Nashville 52% |
 Orlando City vs  Toronto FC |
Orlando City 51% |
 Columbus Crew vs  New York Red Bulls |
Draw 23% |
 FC Cincinnati vs  Charlotte FC |
Charlotte 31% |
 DC United vs  Atlanta United |
DC United 43% |
 Sporting Kansas City vs  Los Angeles FC |
LAFC 59% |
 FC Dallas vs  Portland Timbers |
Dallas 53% |
 St. Louis CITY SC vs  Minnesota United |
St. Louis 47% |
 Colorado Rapids vs  CF Montreal |
Colorado 57% |
 Real Salt Lake vs  New York City FC |
Draw 27% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs  Houston Dynamo |
Draw 27% |
 LA Galaxy vs  Seattle Sounders |
Draw 25% |
 Chicago Fire vs  New England Revolution |
Draw 23% |
 Vancouver Whitecaps vs  Austin FC |
Vancouver 76% |
San Diego FC vs  Philadelphia Union |
Philadelphia 39% |
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 25
Inter Miami vs Nashville SC pick: Inter Miami
DraftKings Predictions probability: 52%
For the first time in a while, I'm no longer locking in Nashville. They honestly look tired all of a sudden, and this will be their third match on the road in nine days.
In any other situation, I'd back a draw — but Inter Miami will have a big advantage with the South Florida heat and humidity, and they will want revenge for the 4-1 loss in Nashville last month. At 55% or lower, I'll back the Herons.
Orlando City vs Toronto FC pick: Orlando City
DraftKings Predictions probability: 51%
Antoine Griezmann is absolutely locked in, and now Orlando City has Martin Ojedo back in the starting XI. Toronto have not lost in even matches, and a shock win over Nashville midweek raised some eyebrows.
But it also drained them, and playing a third match in eight days in the brutal Florida heat won't help. Take the Lions to pick up a fourth win in five matches.
Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 23%
The Red Bulls cannot find goals, and they can't find points either. Their last nine matches have yielded just five points, and they've scored just twice in their last four away fixtures.
The problem is the Crew can't find anything, home or away. Three points from their last seven fixtures has me unwilling to back them to win either, so we'll grab the draw at a very favorable 23% probability.
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC pick: Charlotte
DraftKings Predictions probability: 31%
Charlotte come in having gone six unbeaten with 14 points from a possible 18, including consecutive road wins. This is a really bad spot for Cincinnati to be favored at 49% probability, having been trounced 9-0 over their last two matches and defending with 10 men for 74 minutes on Wednesday night.
Add in Evander's suspension, and this is a great spot to fade the home favorites getting any result at all.
DC United vs Atlanta United pick: DC United
DraftKings Predictions probability: 43%
Tai Baribo wasted little time announcing his return from injury, scoring both of DC's goals against Columbus on Wednesday night. He's a matchup problem for an Atlanta defense that has been ripped up in their last three matches by talented strikers. I love getting the home side at less than 50% here.
Sporting Kansas City vs LAFC pick: LAFC
DraftKings Predictions probability: 59%
I'm very happy to get LAFC at below 60%. How lopsided has this matchup been? LAFC have nine wins and two draws in the last 11 meetings, and they've won by multiple goals in each of the last five dating back to Sept. 2024.
That includes a 4-0 win in July, when they put half of their eight shots into the back of the net. It will be another defeat for a Sporting side with one point and five goals from their last seven matches.
FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers pick: Dallas
DraftKings Predictions probability: 54%
I've been really impressed by Dallas's run of form. Yes, they lost 5-0 at Vancouver, but that was their only loss in their last six matches — and five of those fixtures came on the road.
This will be just their third home match in all competitions since May 13, and I'm backing them vs. a Portland side that is 2-2-7 on the road this season and is coming off two grueling matches this week.
St. Louis CITY vs Minnesota United pick: St. Louis CITY
DraftKings Predictions probability: 48%
Getting St. Louis at less than 50% is a great opportunity. Their 15-match unbeaten run is tremendous, and Rafael Navarro's brace on Wednesday shows he might thrive after his move from Austin.
Minnesota have just five points from their last six matches, and have conceded 10 goals in their last three. I'm backing a third straight defeat for the Loons.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal pick: Colorado
DraftKings Predictions probability: 57%
Montreal have just seven points in 12 road trips, and they've posted a horrific -20 goal differential. Traveling to altitude is always difficult; doing it for a third match in eight days is even tougher.
They've been outscored 11-2 in their last three league fixtures, and now travel to Colorado with Prince Owusu dealing with injury.
Colorado have won their last five home matches without conceding a goal. Getting them at less than 60% probability in this situation is a gift.
Real Salt Lake vs NYCFC pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 27%
Both clubs come in with lots of injury concerns, which has led to their respective poor form. RSL are 0-2-5 in their last seven in all competitions, while NYCFC are 0-3-5 in their last eight, including the Leagues Cup. I cannot back either side to win given the situation, and 27% for the draw is tremendous value.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 27%
San Jose have found some form, with five points from their last three outings. Houston have matched that output, but they were fortunate to beat an RSL side that outplayed them much of the first half on Wednesday.
The Dynamo are still trying to find their midfield balance after the sale of Jack McGlynn, and the notable absences on both sides have me liking the probability of a stalemate.
LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 25%
The road team has taken three wins and a draw in the last four meetings between these clubs, and Seattle's coming in after three straight draws.
I don't believe the Galaxy should be favored as much as they are, but I'm also not convinced Seattle have what it takes to get a win with their injury-riddled lineup. The 25% draw probability is very favorable, though I expected it closer to 30%.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution pick: Draw
DraftKings Predictions probability: 23%
The Fire put in a great effort against Inter Miami on Wednesday night, and come into this match on the back of four consecutive league draws. Jonathan Bamba's still missing, despite returning to training earlier this week, and they're badly missing him in attack.
The Revs sit one point ahead of the Fire for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they'll be content with a point from their fourth-straight away match.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC: Vancouver
DraftKings Predictions probability: 76%
This match is a NO PLAY for me as I will never recommend someone playing this outright at this high of a probability.
That said, Vancouver should win. They've scored 13 goals over their last five matches and host an Austin side that has scored just five in that span, albeit Austin have gone five in the league without a defeat. That run ends here.
San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia
DraftKings Predictions probability: 39%
San Diego saw their five-match home winning streak ended on Wednesday by San Jose, and GK Carlos Dos Santos is suspended after picking up two yellows in the loss.
The Union are on fire right now, taking 23 points from a nine-match MLS unbeaten run since the World Cup break. Cavan Sullivan has nine goal contributions in his last seven starts in all competitions, and getting them to win at 39% probability has me tempted to make this a two-unit play.
Jump on this one, and quickly.
- Moneyline picks: 119-169, -6.17 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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