France vs Poland Odds, Picks & Predictions: Mbappe Returns With a Vengeance on Day 12 of Euro 2024

While Kylian Mbappe could technically be considered "questionable" with a broken nose, France need him to suit up to ensure safe passage to the next round. And though the French should topple Poland either way, Mbappe will play a role.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Jun 24, 2024 • 09:40 ET • 4 min read
Kylian Mbappe France Euro 2024
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Group D comes to a conclusion on Tuesday with France vs Poland. The French sit second in the group following a tie with the Netherlands last time out, while Poland have been eliminated after two losses. 

The big question surrounding my France vs Poland prediction involves Kylian Mbappe and whether he’ll be able to take part in this game. 

So get stuck into these Euro 2024 picks as we navigate the star's impact, and whether or not we trust him to suit up.

France vs Poland picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
France -1 (-118 at Betano)

My analysis

Neither France nor Poland have really gotten going in Euro 2024. The Poles have lost both games, giving up five combined goals to Austria and the Netherlands. It was always going to be tough to escape the group, but they’d have hoped to be in contention coming into the final game.

Meanwhile, France won their opener against Austria in a grueling game that saw them get over the line against an organized team. Kylian Mbappe broke his nose, which caused him to miss out on the team’s second game against the Dutch, which finished 0-0. Mbappe was named on the bench for that game but they didn’t bring him on. France arguably should have lost the game but were saved by a controversial VAR decision that ruled out a Dutch goal.

The main takeaway against the Dutch was the team lacked a cutting edge sans Mbappe. Marcus Thuram and Ousmane Dembele are fine players but they’re not ruthless in front of goal. That’s a huge problem and it’s one the French are desperate to fix. Mbappe has been training in a mask and scored two in a friendly game in the last few days. The fact he took part in that gives us an indication that he’ll be playing on Tuesday.

With Mbappe in that front three, they take on a new dimension. France should beat this blunt Poland team either way, but they can tear them to pieces with Mbappe active. The Poles will struggle to deal with his pace and movement and his supporting cast of Antoine Griezmann, Thuram, and Dembele also possesses speed, movement, and vision, which should create plenty of opportunities for Mbappe, and others, to score. 

The Polish defense has been poor throughout the tournament and they’re going to struggle against France. These teams met in the World Cup in Qatar, in a game which saw the French win 3-1. It wouldn’t be a shock to see France score just as many goals on Tuesday, even if Mbappe is ruled out or only plays a small part.

Kylian Mbappe odds, prop for today

My best bet
Kylian Mbappe to score (-161 at Betano)

My analysis

We’re taking a bit of a risk here by betting on Mbappe but we can relax knowing the wager will be voided if he doesn’t start. However, if you’re feeling extra careful, you can wait until the teams are named. 

Given that Mbappe played in that friendly and that France need to win this game, ideally improving their goal difference to overtake the Dutch, means he should to play. 

If Mbappe plays, France have the world’s best player in their ranks. He scored 27 Ligue 1 goals this campaign and another 17 in other competitions for PSG. 

France vs Poland same-game parlay (SGP)

France -1

Kylian Mbappe to score

Poland TT Under 0.5

In addition to our best bet for the game and Mbappe to score, we’re backing Under 0.5 goals for Poland.

They’ve managed to score in each game so far, putting one past both the Netherlands and Austria, but the France backline is very good, and have kept two clean sheets.

The back four (Theo Hernandez, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Jules Kounde) is as good as any in the tournament and should be able to keep Poland to Under 0.5 goals.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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France vs Poland odds

France Poland
-333 Moneyline +1,025
Over 2.5 (-161) Total Under 2.5 (+130)
+440 Draw +440

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-24.

France vs Poland game info

Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
Date: Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Weather: Mix of sun and cloud with no chance of rain, 77 degrees Fahrenheit, 8.6 mph NE winds.

Not intended for use in MA.
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