Canada returns home for the first time since its historic run to the World Cup Round of 16, and Saturday's matchup gives Jesse Marsch's side a chance to start the next cycle on the right foot.
Chile didn't qualify for the World Cup and finished at the bottom of CONMEBOL qualifying, but this is a younger, more aggressive version of La Roja than the one Canada played to a scoreless draw at the 2024 Copa America.
That makes Saturday's Canada vs. Chile predictions a little more interesting than the market suggests, with Canada favored at BMO Field and goals very much in play.
Here are my favorite free picks for Sept. 26.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Canada vs Chile predictions
My Canada vs Chile top pick: Canada to win (60% probability)
Canada deserves to be favored here, and I'm comfortable siding with the home team at 60%.
Chile finished last in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with just two wins from 18 matches, scoring only nine goals along the way. Now they face a Canadian side coming off a trip to the World Cup Round of 16 with most of its attacking core still intact, including Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan, Cyle Larin, and Tani Oluwaseyi.
Canada does have some defensive absences, but Chile hasn't shown enough going forward for that to scare me away. The visitors are also spending most of the week training in St. Louis before travelling to Toronto on Friday, while Canada gets its first game back home after the World Cup.
Against a Chile side that has struggled to score and now has to deal with Canada's pace and attacking depth, I like the homecoming to end with a win.
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Canada vs Chile combo
Canada to win
Over 2.5 goals
I'm leaning into the same game script for my Canada vs Chile combo.
Chile's ugly World Cup qualifying numbers don't tell the whole story anymore. Its last five matches have all seen both teams score and Over 2.5 goals, with La Roja scoring 10 times but also giving up 10. Canada has the attacking talent to expose that defense, while its own absences make a Chile goal more realistic than the outright market suggests.
That points me toward a 2-1 or 3-1 type of result. Rather than getting cute with another leg, I'm pairing the stronger team with the scoring environment and taking Canada to win with Over 2.5 goals.
Canada vs Chile odds
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Canada vs Chile
| Location | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN, RDS, OneSoccer |
| Weather | Mostly sunny, 73°F (23°C) |
Canada vs Chile key injuries
Canada: Kone (out), Flores (out), Johnston (out), Davies (out), Crépeau (out).
Chile: Aravena (out), Montes (questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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