After nearly sweeping our picks last week, my Steelers vs. Browns anytime touchdown scorer predictions look for another profitable card.
Jaylen Warren and Harold Fannin Jr. have caught my eye, while Roman Wilson makes for a sexy long-shot opportunity.
Want more NFL picks? Read our complete Steelers vs. Browns predictions for Thursday, Oct. 1.
Best Steelers vs Browns anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaylen Warren |
44% |
 Harold Fannin Jr. |
20% |
| First TD: Jaylen Warren |
15% |
| Long shot: Roman Wilson |
15% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Steelers touchdown pick: Jaylen Warren
Rico Dowdle missed last week's Pittsburgh Steelers game, and Jaylen Warren saw a massive uptick in usage. With Dowdle listed as DNP in practice up to this point, I'm backing that high volume to continue.
Warren's snap count jumped from 71% to 90%, and he had a season-high 17 carries. He also had four targets and caught three.
The usage didn't translate into a touchdown in Week 3, but I see that changing vs. the Cleveland Browns. The home side is giving up 120.3 yards per game on the ground, and 15-20 rush attempts should be in Warren's future once again.
That workload resulting in zero scores is unsustainable, and I am playing this as long as it's shorter than 48%.
Browns touchdown pick: Harold Fannin
Deshaun Watson has found his guy. Harold Fannin was tied for the team lead in targets against the Panthers with nine, and unlike KC Concepcion, he actually caught them.
Fannin continues to see plenty of field — 86% snap count in back-to-back weeks — and his ability to create separation makes him a viable target whenever TJ Watt & Co. put pressure on Watson.
Cleveland's tight end has only two red-zone targets this year (zero through the first two weeks), but he caught them both. I expect his usage inside the 20 to keep rising, and I'd play this to 25%.
First touchdown scorer pick: Jaylen Warren
I'm going back to the well with Warren.
His usage is too high to ignore, and he'll find paydirt sooner rather than later with that kind of volume. Watson can't sling it like Burrow can, and I think the Steelers will grind this game to a halt with more action in the trenches.
If Dowdle is out once more, Warren will find the end zone first.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Roman Wilson
Austin Hooper came through for us last week. No pressure Roman Wilson...
Wilson has been targeted exactly six times in all three games this season, hauling in 11 of those. Last week, he led the Steelers in targets and opened the scoring with his first touchdown of the season.
Even more insane, those looks all came while playing just 39% of Pittsburgh's snaps. DK Metcalf has been underwhelming, and we all know what Aaron Rodgers thinks of Michael Pittman, so Wilson has emerged as someone the veteran QB trusts.
I'll gladly take a stab at the 25-year-old finding the end zone for the second week in a row, up to 18%.
Steelers vs Browns touchdown combo
Jaylen Warren
Harold Fannin
I have hit back-to-back combos, and I am combining my favorite scorer from each team. Fannin looks like Watson's top pass option, and Warren's workload won't drop much. More looks equals more scoring opportunities, and these two will get the job done for us.
- TD picks: 4-3, +8.43 units
- First TD picks: 0-3, -1.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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