Bayern Munich vs Lazio Predictions and Picks: Kane Leads the Way for Bayern

After shockingly losing the first leg of this clash with Lazio, expectations remain high for Bayern Munich, who are heavily favored on the moneyline. While we agree with the oddsmakers, the vig is too high, so we're looking at alternate markets.

Mar 5, 2024 • 12:12 ET • 4 min read
Harry Kane Bayern Munich Champions League Soccer
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The second leg games in the Champions League Round of 16 are here and we have what could be a classic between Bayern Munich and Lazio on Tuesday, March 5.

The Bavarian side were expected to bring a lead back from Italy but they lost 1-0 to Lazio instead. Now, in front of their home fans, they simply must find a way to win to reach the next round. Champions League odds are bullish on their chances.

Bayern have been out of form but have a lot of experience in the Champions League. Can they put that to good use and win here? Don’t miss our Bayern Munich vs Lazio tips and predictions to find out.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio best odds

Bayern Munich vs Lazio picks and predictions

Before the first leg of Bayern Munich vs. Lazio, you’d have probably expected this second leg to be a dull game. However, while most, including the sportsbooks, expected Bayern to be coming into this game with an aggregate lead, the reality is very different, with a Ciro Immobile goal in the first leg handing a 10-man Bayern Munich a defeat. 

It’s been a really poor run for Bayern of late. They went into that first Lazio game on the back of a 3-0 humbling by Bundesliga leaders Leverkusen, who thoroughly outplayed them. They were beaten 3-2 by Bochum, with more ill-discipline and another red card. A 2-1 win over Leipzig papered over the cracks before a 2-2 draw against Freiburg this past weekend. Thomas Tuchel is set to leave the club at the end of the season but there’s a chance, especially if they were to lose this game, that it happens sooner. 

If you think that means that we’re not going to back Bayern to win, you’re wrong. 

As bad as things have been for Bayern, they haven’t been much better for Lazio since the first leg. They’ve won just one of four and lost to Bologna, Fiorentina, and, most recently, Milan, and they’ve had two red cards in that timespan.

For all of Bayern’s faults right now, their home crowd can pull them through tough games. For years, we’ve seen Bayern strong at the Allianz Arena. A poor Bundesliga season has seen them drop 13 points on the road but they’ve still just lost five at home, with one defeat and a draw alongside 10 home victories. They will start this game with real intensity and should beat a Lazio team who have won just 12 of 27 Serie A games and scored just 32 league goals, the second-lowest total in the top half of the division. 

Bayern are still missing some talented players but they have so much attacking talent, as well as the home advantage, that they should be able to score early and pull away. They averaged two goals per game in the group stages and would fancy their chances of keeping a clean sheet against Lazio, who were tied for the lowest total of any team to qualify for the Round of 16 with seven goals in the group stages.

Back the Germans to win this one by a couple of goals and relieve the pressure, at least for now, on Tuchel.

My best bet: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-124 at TonyBet)

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Bayern Munich vs Lazio same-game parlay

Bayern Munich to win by 2+ goals

Bayern Munich 1H result

Harry Kane anytime goal

In addition to betting on Bayern Munich to win by two or more, we’ll also take them to win the first half. They haven’t been quite as good as in previous years in terms of scoring early, with the majority of Champions League goals coming in the second half, and winning at halftime in just 12 of 24 Bundesliga games this season.

However, this is different.

They know the task in front of them and they know that they need multiple goals, so they should come out swinging.

The final leg is for England striker Harry Kane to score for Bayern.

There’s been too much talk about a Tottenham curse for Bayern Munich leaving them without the title this season, but their failure to not reclaim the Bundesliga, if that happens, isn’t on Kane. He's scored 27 in 14 Bundesliga games and four times in seven Champions League contests.

He didn’t score against Freiburg at the weekend but had three in the two games before that. Make no mistake, if Bayern are to win this game, then we’ll see Kane on the score sheet.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio side and Over/Under analysis

Despite their struggles, Bayern are the better team and their experience at this stage of the Champions League is something Lazio are lacking and could be a deciding factor. The likes of Thomas Muller have been in this situation so many times before that they’ll be able to get Bayern over the line.

 At -345 the odds of a Bayern win on the moneyline are too short to bet, but I can’t see them drawing at +500 or Lazio winning at +900 either.

If you’re expecting goals, you can get Over 2.5 goals at -164 or Under 2.5 at +139. The Over has landed in 87.5% of Bayern’s league games this season, failing to hit that mark just three times in 24 games. It also landed in their first four Champions League games, however, the first leg of this matchup against Lazio finished with just two goals in total.

The Under has landed in 59.3% of Lazio’s Serie A games this season, although their road had seen the majority hit the Over. I’d lean the Over, especially with Bayern needing at least two goals to qualify for the next stage.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Bayern Munich vs Lazio game info

Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Date: Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+
Weather: 45F, 0% POP, 3 mph wind, cloudy

Bayern Munich vs Lazio key injuries

Bayern Munich: Dayot Upamecano CB (Out), Konrad Laimer RB (Out), Kingsley Coman RW (Out), Sacha Boey RB (Out), Noussair Mazraoui FB (Out) Serge Gnabry FWR (Questionable), Leroy Sane FWR (Questionable).
Lazio: Patric CB (Out), Nicolo Rovella CDM (Out).

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