MLB Picks

Although the Bo Sox signed several players to improve one of baseball's worst bullpens, they still have major question marks outside of former All-Star closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Chris Martin — especially with injuries sending Joely Rodriguez to the IL and forcing Tanner Houck into the rotation. 

Chicago even has the edge in relief pitching, with the Brewers losing three solid options in Taylor Rogers, Brad Boxberger, and Trevor Gott during free agency. With both starters likely on sub-90 pitch counts, middle relief could play a big factor here and is a strength of the Cubs. Burnes has some angles I’m looking to fade early in the season and this Chicago team might be underrated with a solid lineup and pitching depth in the pen. I’ll take the Stro-show on opening day at +127.

The Tigers ranked dead-last in scoring, plating just 3.4 runs per game while ranking 25th in batting average and 29th in OPS. Part of the reason for that is that Javier Baez's first season in Detroit did not go well. Detroit signed the shortstop to a big deal last offseason, and he managed just 17 home runs and a .238 average. While he has some pop, there is a big hole in his swing. Baez ranked in the Bottom 4% of the MLB when it came to whiff percentage and chase rate last season. He also ranked in the 26th percentile in K-rate.

Darick Hall was having a great spring and was projected to see plenty of at-bats vs. right-handed pitching, where he has a 0.865 OPS in his 130 career at-bats. Now with Rhys Hoskins out, Hall has moved into a full-time role. Hall’s at-bats vs. deGrom might be difficult, but there is a chance he sees at least two at-bats vs. the Rangers bullpen that has some poor middle relievers. Trea Turner could easily get into scoring position for Hall, and both JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber have easy extra-base power.

Greene struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings last season and ranked in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate. And he’ll have a chance to keep racking up the Ks today against the Pirates. The Buccos went down swinging a lot last season. In fact, they had the highest strikeout rate in baseball in 2022, and the third-highest K-rate when facing right-handed pitching.

Manoah’s first full MLB season was a resounding success, as he pitched to a 2.24 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .202 batting average. He also pitched into the sixth inning in 29 of his 31 starts, and held opponents to two earned runs or fewer 25 times. St. Louis will counter Miles Mikolas, who ranked in the Bottom 5% in whiff rate last year. Not missing bats is going to make it tough against a deep Blue Jays lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I expect both Alcantara and Scherzer to have strong starts to the season on Thursday. However, starting pitchers rarely go deep on Opening Day, and that makes me think we could see a lot of both bullpens later in the game. So while I want to play the Under here, I’m more interested in focusing on the first half of the game.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease was fantastic a year ago (2.20 ERA), and there’s a reason he’s expected to compete for the AL Cy Young in 2023. His opponent, the Astros’ Framber Valdez, managed a 3.31 xERA and a 3.06 FIP in 2022. Houston begins the season a bit shorthanded, as Jose Altuve (thumb) is out for two months. The Chicago offense was pedestrian a year ago, with a 99 wRC+. I'll be counting on a low-scoring opening game between these two sides.

Shohei Ohtani is going to be pitching to an Oakland A’s lineup which kind of looks like a big mess right now, as Jesus Aguilar is their underwhelming cleanup hitter. There’s little to like about this offense, and it’s hard to see Oakland scratching across any runs against Ohtani. I have been looking at many underdogs on Opening Day, but this isn’t a spot I can get behind. Lay the runs with the Halos.