MLB Picks

I'm out on the Blue Jays. This is a team that made the Royals pitching staff look like the 98 Braves and until they figure out the bottom half of the order, the offense as a whole will continue to struggle. You know who's not struggling right now? The Dodgers offense. This is a team that's put up 27 runs over their last four games and has scored at least four runs in seven of the last nine. If they can continue that trend, the Jays don't stand a chance. Chris Bassitt has been shaky at best to start the year and he's got major command issues, something the Dodgers can take advantage of. I'll take the deeper and hotter lineup here. Dodgers roll.

Miles Mikolas looks to be in for a tough start against a Mets offense that has woken up after a slow start to the year. New York is averaging 4.71 runs per game and has scored at least eight runs in three of its last seven contests. Francisco Lindor was the last key player in the Mets lineup to break out, most recently going 4-for-5 with two homers on Wednesday against San Francisco. The Mets are back at home behind Jose Butto and face a struggling starter that their talented lineup should handle. I’m taking New York to win tonight's game outright.

These two teams are among the worst teams in the league at run production and now they go head-to-head at a time where neither of them are playing well. The Marlins have scored a whopping three runs over their last three games and have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. As for the Nats, they managed just four runs in a three-game sweep vs. the Dodgers. So you see where I'm going with this? Jesus Luzardo is returning to form and should produce a quality start, while Trevor Williams has given up two or fewer runs in three of his four starts. Take the under. 

Boston's Kutter Crawford is having a breakout season, pitching to an incredible 0.66 ERA with an OBA of .163 through five starts. Chicago's Shota Imanaga has made a seamless transition from Japan to the majors and has a 0.84 ERA with a .175 OBA in four starts. While the Cubs have been generating runs, they are batting just .236 and slugging .387 against right-handed pitchers like Crawford. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 20th in the majors in batting average (.236) with that number plummeting to .198 at Fenway. While regression is inevitable for both pitchers, their xERA numbers (3.35 for Imanaga and 2.60 for Crawford) indicate that we shouldn't see too much of a dropoff. Expect a lower-scoring start to this contest and take the Under on the first five innings. 

Eflin has been spitting seeds and has a tasty matchup he can and will exploit; the White Sox strike out too much and chase far too many pitches to hurt Eflin. The Rays bats haven’t set the world on fire against righties, and they, too, whiff far too much and chase too many pitches, which aids Flexen.

Elly De La Cruz has stolen bases for the Cincinnati Reds in three of his last four games, including a three-steal night vs. the Phillies on Wednesday. In addition to that, he’s been on fire offensively over the last week with impressive slash numbers, including a .571 on-base percentage. Today’s matchup for the young electric phenom is a strong one. In the previous two seasons, nobody pitching today has had more bases stolen on them than Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi.

Colin Rea will take the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight and has been an impressive hurler throughout his career. That said, Aaron Judge will match up favorably with him. There’s not much historical data to go by as Judge is just 1-for-1 lifetime against Rea. However, the metrics like the matchup. Rea’s expected wOBA and expected ERA are much higher than his actual numbers. In addition, a looming hard-hit issue for Rea has started to emerge. That’s not exactly the issue you want when facing Judge and the New York Yankees. The issues for Judge this season have surprisingly come against the fastball, and he won’t see much of it today as Rea is primarily a breaking ball pitcher

With that said, the walks could become a concern against a Milwaukee Brewers team which is walking nearly 10% of the time, and his 44.4% ground ball rate would certainly put barrels into play here against Milwaukee. Yes, the barrel rate looks epical right now, but he’s allowed just 36 batted balls this season and is due for a bit of regression. On the flip side, Colin Rea has pitched to even fewer ground balls than Gil and is in a menacing spot against a Yankees team that was one of the best in home run-to-fly ball ratio a year ago and, while having a slightly down year, is still 12th in that department this season. With his .328 xBA and low strikeout rate, I think we’re bound to see a ton of balls coming back into play in dangerous positions.

The Seattle Mariners lead the league in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeouts per game. They’ll enter this game averaging over 11 Ks in their last three contests and over 10 on the season. Those are not the issues you want to deal with when facing Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. He’ll come into this game with a K-rate and a chase rate that is in the Top 15% of the league. He’s exceeded this number in two of his last three games, and everything points to that continuing in such a good matchup.

Even with his slower start to the season, Rodriguez is batting .355 against four-seamers this year and that’s after putting up a .544 SLG against them last season. He hits four-seamers hard, and the numbers say Gallen will go to it over half the time against Rodriguez. When he does get away from it, it’ll likely be for that knuckle curve, a pitch that Rodriguez hasn’t seen in the majors yet. But it shouldn’t scare him with the success he’s had against breaking balls in the past.

The Philadelphia Phillies may have more big names in their lineup, but it’s the Padres who have the better numbers through the first month. That’s especially true against right-handed pitching — San Diego ranks fifth in wRC+ (115) and wOBA (.334), while Philadelphia checks in at 21st in wRC+ (92) and 17th in wOBA (.307).