Two teams desperately seeking wins will face off on Friday night as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets.
Atlanta comes in as a slight -104 favorite tonight, but I’m taking New York to win on the road in my Mets vs. Braves predictions.
Read on to see my full analysis as I reveal my free MLB picks for Friday, July 3.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Mets moneyline (+100)
While the New York Mets have been brutal offensively, they have a habit of making good contact, ranking third in hard-hit percentage at 41.6%. That’s a problem for Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes, who allows a 44.7% hard-hit rate and only strikes out 20.7% of batters.
The Braves boast an 8.8% barrel rate themselves, but New York starter Christian Scott only gives up barrels on 6.0% of hit balls and has a good average exit velocity of just 87.9 mph.
With the Mets holding a small edge in these matchups, I like New York at -110 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets have a 20.5% air pull rate against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties, pitches that make up 71% of Holmes’ arsenal.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-127)
Atlanta hasn’t scored more than five runs in a game in any of its last seven contests, and may struggle against Scott’s sweeper, as they have just a 21.8% air pull rate against the pitch, which ranks 23rd in MLB. The Mets are third-worst in the majors in run scoring, having put up just 3.98 runs per game on the year.
Given those trends and a solid pitching matchup, it’s hard to see a whole lot of runs coming tonight. This total is far too high, and I’m taking the Under at 8.5 runs or more.
- ML/RL bets: 13-21, -8.84 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-20, -8.74 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: New York +102 | Atlanta -104
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+159) | Atlanta +1.5 (-167)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (-131)
Mets vs Braves trend
Atlanta is 2-8 straight up in its last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (2-0, 3.20 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Grant Holmes (4-4, 3.96 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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