MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Friday, July 3

Crack open a cold one because the long holiday weekend has finally arrived. To kick off the festivities, we're bypassing the heavy favorites and hunting for pure value on Friday's baseball board.

I'm backing multiple live dogs tonight, including the Twins and Padres, to cash some high-yielding tickets before the fireworks even start in my MLB moneyline predictions.

Here is my deep dive into Friday’s MLB picks for July 3.

Matchup	Pick
Cardinals vs Cubs	-120
Pirates vs Nationals	-133
Twins vs Yankees	+167
Orioles vs Reds	-113
White Sox vs Guardians	+122
Mets vs Braves	+106
Giants vs Rockies	+138
Rays vs Astros	+102
Red Sox vs Angels	-102
Marlins vs Athletics	-122
Brewers vs Diamondbacks	-141
Padres vs Dodgers	+228
Blue Jays vs Mariners	-117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-3.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 3

Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cubs (-120)

Cubs win probability: 55%

Does anyone want to get in front of the red hot Chicago Cubs right now? The Cardinals in their last six games own a 40 wRC+, .494 OPS and .092 ISO. Meanwhile, the Cubs have a 156 wRC+, .399 wOBA and .923 OPS during that span.

Take the Cubs on the eve of this holiday weekend.

Pirates vs. Nationals: Nationals (-133)

Nationals win probability: 57%

Nationals right hander Foster Griffin has been on a tear over his last five outings, owning a 1.15 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 27.50% strikeout rate. The Pirates have been very swing happy this past week, owning a 29.3% strikeout rate, while the Nationals have been no better, they have still one of the most lethal offenses in baseball. James Wood has gone cold as of late, but he is still producing a 92% hard hit rate. Insane. 

I like the Nationals here. 

Twins vs. Yankees: Twins (+167)

Twins win probability: 38%

I am going to keep this super short.

The  New York Yankees own a 1 wRC+ in their last six games. One. They are frozen solid.

Take the value in the Twins. 

Orioles vs. Reds: Orioles (-113)

Orioles win probability: 53%

Despite having a horrific start to the year, Trevor Rogers has turned this around as of late. The Orioles southpaw owns a 1.40 ERA, 2.07 xERA and 0.78 WHIP in his last three starts. I think his recent dominance continues and he leads the Orioles to a win this evening. 

White Sox vs. Guardians: White Sox (+122)

White Sox win probability: 45%

This feels like a clear bounce back spot after last night’s heartbreaking loss. Snagging the White Sox at +122 looks like the right angle, leaning into the power of friendship and a get right spot. Anthony Kay has also been steady lately, posting a 3.65 xERA over his last three starts. If he can deliver six solid innings, Chicago should be in a strong position to close it out and cash.

Mets vs. Braves: Mets (+106)

Mets win probability: 48%

I am already backing Juan Soto this evening, so why not take the entire Mets team? Christian Scott has been on a tear on the road, while Grant Holmes has been getting lit up by left handed hitters. I like the Mets as an underdog here, especially with how inconsistent both teams have been. Feels like the price is right, give me the value.

Giants vs. Rockies: Rockies (+138)

Rockies win probability: 42%

Sure, Logan Webb is on the mound for the Giants, and he has been nails, but so has the Rockies offense lately. Ryan Feltner for Colorado has also been solid in his recent starts, posting a 2.70 ERA over his last three outings.

I like the value on the Rockies.

Rays vs. Astros: Astros (+102)

Astros win probability: 50%

Rays starter Nick Martinez has slowly been regressing over his last five starts, as he owns a 5.14 ERA in that span. Spencer Arrighetti has not been much better overall, but at home he has been solid, posting a 3.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

I think after a massive week at home, hitting the road could cool down a Rays offense that has been on fire lately. I am willing to take the risk here.

Red Sox vs. Angels: Angels (-102)

Angels win probability: 50%

Both offenses have been ice cold as of late, so we are going to have to back the better pitcher. Red Sox left hander Jake Bennett has been nails in his last three outings, but Reid Detmers has been consistent all season long, owning a 2.88 xERA on the year with a 1.06 WHIP as well.

Give me the hometown team to come through.

Marlins vs. Athletics: Athletics (-122)

Athletics win probability: 55%

The Athletics offense has been pretty cold this past week, but they draw Marlins right hander Tyler Phillips, who has a 5.00 ERA, 5.02 xERA, and 1.37 WHIP in his last five starts. Phillips allows a ton of hard contact, and this should be a good spot for the Athletics to get back on track.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers (-141)

Brewers win probability: 58%

The lone winner of the Rafael Devers trade, Kyle Harrison and man has he had himself a season! The left hander owns a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the year. He draws a very cold Diamondbacks offense, while having one of the hottest offenses backing him this evening. 

Brewers. Pay the juice.

Padres vs. Dodgers: Padres (+228)

Padres win probability: 30%

It is either the Padres come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing an early 6-0 lead last night, or they tuck their tail. Either way, I think taking the Padres at +228 is worth the sprinkle. The offense has been hitting the ball very well this past week, and they could get their revenge this evening.

Take the value!

Blue Jays vs. Mariners: Blue Jays (-117)

Blue Jays win probability: 54%

Another game featuring two ice cold offenses, and I have to take the better pitcher, which means backing Blue Jays right hander Dylan Cease. On the season he owns a 3.02 ERA, 2.79 xERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. These numbers have been consistent all season long.

Luis Castillo on the other end has been a literal punching bag, and the Blue Jays offense should be able to break out against the heavy fastball pitcher.

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