Friday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's heaviest hitters find themselves in mouthwatering matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters my MLB picks are targeting to leave their mark tonight.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jonathan Aranda |
Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | -146 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | +133 |
 Sal Stewart |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +101 |
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-146)
The Tampa Bay Rays' most consistent bat, Jonathan Aranda, finds himself in yet another great spot. The first baseman has been seeing the ball better than just about anyone in baseball, hitting .478 with a .600 OBP, .696 SLG, and 1.296 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Aranda is white hot as he draws Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this season.
That has been especially true over the last 30 lefties he has faced, allowing a 50% hard hit rate, 22.2% barrel rate, and 77.8% elevation rate. On top of that, those hitters own a .965 xSLG and .453 xwOBA during that stretch.
This evening marks Aranda's 52nd elite rating over the last three seasons on Batters-Box. In his previous 51 elite ratings, he has gone Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in nearly 61% of those games. He has also cleared this prop in six of his last 10 elite-rated matchups.
I would not take this prop at any number higher than the current one. If you are not looking to lay the juice, I would pivot to his over 2.5 HRR or total bases, or sprinkle a little on a double or home run.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+133)
We are running it back with Shohei Ohtani this evening, but alt-ing his hits, runs, and RBI prop down to 2.5 to get better value.
The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 100% of San Diego Padres right-hander Michael King’s arsenal.
When elite, Ohtani has some of the most absurd trends you will find.
In 314 elite ratings over the last three seasons, he records:
- 1+ hit: 74.0%
- 2+ hits: 33.76%
- Home run: 29.62%
- 2+ bases: 56.59%
- 2+ HRR: 65.92%
- 3+ HRR: 50.32%
Ohtani has cleared this prop in five of his last ten elite ratings.
King this season has been solid as always, but it is his most recent stretch that is pulling me back into Ohtani in back-to-back days. His underlying numbers have taken a hit, with a 5.81 xERA over his last five starts and 5.14 over his last three.
Known for being a strikeout arm, his strikeout rate is under 15% over his last five. Against his last 60 left-handed hitters, he is allowing a .639 xSLG and .393 xwOBA.
I think Ohtani can get this done with one swing. Take this down to +120, but shop for the best number.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, SDPA
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 total bases (+101)
We are all over Cincinnati Reds slugger Sal Stewart this evening for a couple of reasons. For starters, the weather in Cincinnati is expected to be around 93 degrees with 50% humidity. Secondly, this game is being played at one of the league's most hitter-friendly ballparks.
Those two things alone should have your ears perked up.
Stewart also enters today with the third-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 88.6% of Trevor Rogers' pitch mix. At home against left-handed pitchers, the young slugger is elevating the baseball 73.1% of the time while posting a 57.7% hard hit rate.
Overall this season, he owns a .244 ISO, 156 wRC+, and .924 OPS against lefties.
The biggest concern will be the strikeouts, as Stewart owns a 30% strikeout rate over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. However, on the road, Rogers owns a sub-20 % strikeout rate this season.
At plus money, I think this is a great bet on a guy who has seen lefties very well and will be in a situation where, if he makes good contact, the ball should fly.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, MASN
- Prop picks: 254-488, -20.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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