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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 20, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+150 
|
o7.0 -118 
|
+1.5 -150 
|
|
4.39 |
-160
|
u7.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +140
|
Toronto
- Over is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.68 |
+190
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.42 |
-192
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +115
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-3 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Roupps last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Roupps last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Willy Adames o0.5 Total RBIs (+268)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+125
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.59 |
-128 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in Jumps last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Jumps last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 vs. American League Central.
- are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+130
|
o7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.63 |
-128
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-2 in Kirbys last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 6-0 in Gassers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Gassers last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Gassers last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Gassers last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
-104
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
5.12 |
-102 
|
u8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -170
|
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Braves are 7-0 in Holmes' last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
-106
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.35 |
+110
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -160
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 6-0 in Coles last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 9-0 in Yankees last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Coles last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0-1 in Orioles last 7 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 7-1 in Orioles last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
Top Projection
Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total RBIs (+238)
o0.5+238
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.47 |
+158
|
o7.0 -143
|
+2.0 -215
|
|
4.06 |
-161
|
u7.5 -105
|
-2.0 +175
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Alvarezs last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Texas
- Under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Brady House o0.5 Total RBIs (+307)
o0.5+307
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
+170
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.97 |
-175
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +120
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Under is 8-1 in Angels last 9 road games.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
Houston
- Over is 7-0 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-0 in Lamberts last 4 starts vs. American League West.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Astros are 4-0 in Lamberts last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0 in Sales last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Sales last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-1 in Braves last 9 games as a road favorite.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Misiorowskis last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Misiorowskis last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 11-1-1 in Misiorowskis last 13 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-1 in Nationals last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Miami
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-1-3 in Giants last 8 games as a road underdog.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0-1 in Orioles last 7 home games.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Under is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 5-0-1 in last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs. American League West.
Houston
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-1 in Angels last 9 road games.
Texas
- Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 9-2 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-2 in Guardians last 10 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Under is 10-1-1 in Lodolos last 12 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Twins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Twins last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 on grass.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Seattle
- Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
TOR
@
TB
Thu, Aug 20 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
If we're looking into homers, might as well rock with the hottest hitter in the Blue Jays lineup. Yes, Alejandro Kirk has 14 hits and three bombs across his eight-game hit streak, and he owns a home run alongside a .857 SLG against Ian Seymour in his career. Let's ride with the big man one more time.
Moneyline
TOR (+145)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
This is a good spot to take a shot. The Toronto Blue Jays have all the momentum after coming just a run short of completing a seemingly insurmountable comeback following a couple of mind-numbing errors from Jesus Sanchez in left field. This type of resiliency should carry over against Tampa Bay Rays' Ian Seymour, who the Jays own a .325 average and .439 xSLG against across 40 at-bats.
SF
@
CLE
Thu, Aug 20 • 1:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-110)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
There is still room for this fall from 52 cents, as some books are already as short as 55 cents. It’s a perfect getaway spot in an interleague afternoon game between two teams that combined for just one run yesterday. The Giants have the tougher task with Gavin Williams on the mound, and San Francisco has scored just two runs in the series. The Giants have also scored one or fewer runs in five of their last 10 games and now head to Boston tonight after the game. Cleveland’s offense has been shut out in three of its last six games and has to travel to altitude tonight to open a series against the Rockies that they need to sweep. Landen Roupp isn’t a top-end pitcher, but he has handled sub-.500 teams well, with the Under not losing in his last seven starts against losing teams. There is a chance this moves to a flat 7 today if the afternoon lineups are weak.
Total Bases
Jung Hoo Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jung Hoo Lee's batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jung Hoo Lee is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for left-handed base hits.. This game is forecasted to have the 12th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Jung Hoo Lee will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams today.
ATH
@
KC
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Salvador Perez u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's deepest LF fences today.. Salvador Perez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 3.4% over the past two weeks.. Salvador Perez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 92.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 82.4-mph over the past week.. Salvador Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 16.4% on the season to 6.9% in the past 14 days.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Zack Gelof is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most favorable for hitting on the schedule today.
SEA
@
MIL
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Outs Recorded
Robert Gasser u17.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Robert Gasser is coming off a career-high 102 pitches in his last game, where he went beyond 18 outs for just the second time in 14 games. He’s already at 100 innings this year after throwing just 80 combined innings over the previous two seasons. The leash could be shorter, and the efficiency could be down—a perfect setup for an Under 17.5 outs at a great price. In his five games before that 102-pitch outing five days ago, Gasser threw 94, 76, 77, 86 and 58 pitches. The Brewers burned some arms last night, but they still have their top four high-leverage arms available, and their top three big arms haven’t been used since Sunday. Gasser is 4-10 O/U on this total this season and struggles against right-handed bats, with a handful of them in the Seattle lineup capable of making a difference today. The projection is 84 pitches and 15.56 outs, making this a five-star prop at this total.
Total Home Runs
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+442)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Gasser is coming off a career-high 102 pitches but averages 87 pitches per start, and he’s already at 100 innings this year after throwing just 90 innings combined in 2024 and 2025. After Shane Bieber, Gasser has the highest HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today. Right-handed hitters are batting .290 against Gasser this year and account for 85% of the homers he’s allowed. That’s where J-Rod comes in. He leads the team in xwOBA this month, has gone deep three times, and leads all Seattle batters in WAR this month despite a negative defensive rating. All the right-handed bats, including Taylor Ward and Randy Arozarena, are projecting +EV today.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Grant Holmes o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+118)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The White Sox bats have been red hot despite a tough week at Wrigley. Over their last 12 games, Chicago owns a 131 wRC+, .361 wOBA and .818 OPS while entering with the third-highest-rated offense on Batters-Box. Atlanta sends Grant Holmes to the mound, who owns the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate, along with a 5.04 xERA and 1.38 WHIP over his last five starts. He has also allowed a 43.59% hard-hit rate and 11.54% barrel rate. With seven left-handed hitters facing Holmes, who owns a 4.55 xERA against lefties, Chicago should produce early.
Total Home Runs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Miguel Vargas has been a home run machine this season for the Sox, and he's in great power form. Vargas has clubbed three bombs in his last six contests, posting a .414 ISO during that span. The slugger also has a 54.2% hard-hit rate and 20.8% barrel rate over the last week.
NYY
@
BAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 6:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-109)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
We are going right back to Pete Alonso after he cashed for us last night and nearly added another home run late. Alonso has gone over this prop 68.18% of the time when rated elite on Batters-Box this season, across a 22-game sample. He also covers over 85% of Gerrit Cole's arsenal. Over his last ten games, Alonso owns a 1.000 SLG, .500 ISO, 67.7% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate. Cole has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate to his last 30 right-handed hitters, who have produced a .445 xBA and .604 xSLG. The price is simply too good.
Total Home Runs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+562)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Bradish's whole skill is keeping the ball on the ground like we've talked about. Beating him means getting lift on breaking stuff. Jazz is the Yankee who has done it, posting a .413 average and .609 slugging with a .504 xSLG against sinkers this season, a plus-5 run value and the best mark on the roster. Chisholm also pulls 53.9% of his contact, the highest rate in the lineup, into a right field porch that rewards it. Play to +350.
WAS
@
TEX
Thu, Aug 20 • 8:05 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-103)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
WAS (+146)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
LAA
@
HOU
Thu, Aug 20 • 8:10 PM ET
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
LA starter Grayson Rodriguez is always a great pitcher fade. He ranks in the bottom 50 among MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate, but those numbers could be even worse considering he’s been a little lucky. Only three other starters have a worse HardHit% than G-Rod’s 48.6%, while his 35% ground-ball rate is also one of the worst in baseball. Rodriguez is a 7.00 ERA pitcher who gets barreled and gives up plenty of fly balls. Lefties have hit him at a better rate, but right-handed hitters have done just as much damage when it comes to home runs. Cam Smith at +575 stands out as the best play on the Houston side. He’s been the team’s best hitter this month, pacing the Astros in homers (4), slugging (.600) and wOBA (.427), while ranking second in HardHit% behind Yordan Alvarez.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Taylor Trammell o0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-148)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
HALF. HALF a hit, run and/or RBI. HALF!!!
Houston Astros outfielder Trammell enters Thursday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset and a strong matchup against Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Trammell owns a .500 SLG, 15% walk rate, 51.6% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate. Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 49.1% hard-hit rate and 1.76 HR/9 while surrendering a .310 xBA, .506 xSLG and .360 xwOBA. With Trammell making plenty of hard contact lately, HALF an HRR offers plenty of value. Take it down to -150.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
