France have barely put a foot wrong on this World Cup journey, and they’re -550 favorites for Saturday’s Round of 16 clash against a Paraguay team that’s on another upset mission.
La Albirroja’s shootout joy against Germany delivered a tournament highlight, but my France vs. Paraguay predictions expect the underdogs to crash back to Earth in Philadelphia, with Les Bleus unleashing their potent attack.
Take a closer look at this July 4 matchup with my free World Cup picks.
France vs Paraguay predictions
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Who will win France vs Paraguay: France -2.5 (+130)
While plenty of other contenders struggle for form, France are making it look easy, with an xG of at least 1.50 in all four contests.
Les Bleus’ dominance shows up in the more basic numbers too, with 13 goals for and just two against, and Kylian Mbappé enters this showdown with Paraguay in scorching form at the head of this deadly French attack.
It’s been a different story for La Albirroja, who are averaging 0.36 xG at this World Cup and have found the net just twice in four outings.
In the last round, Paraguay’s defensive scheme withstood everything Germany threw at them, but France move the ball at a different pace, with speedsters on both wings. The interchangeability of their front three will stretch the Paraguayans’ back four, and we saw the USMNT’s movement rip through La Albirroja during the group stage on the way to a 4-1 win.
Didier Deschamps’ men are no strangers to facing a disciplined low block, and I’m grabbing these tasty odds for a spread pick that’s been a winner in six of France’s past seven games.
COVERS INTEL: To underline the firepower that Deschamps can call on, France have scored 3+ goals in eight of their last 10 games. TOp pick
France vs Paraguay Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-161)
This is a reasonable price to buy into a French attack that’s been lethal at this World Cup, with 3+ goals in each outing. While Paraguay may offer occasional threats through Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso, Les Bleus can cash this Over on their own.
Deschamps has the luxury of bringing either Desire Doué or Bradley Barcola off the bench, and France have shown the hunger to score in bunches too — three goals in the second half against Senegal, three goals in the first half to sink Norway.
Unless La Albirroja adjust their usual 4-4-2 formation, it’s hard to see them stemming the flow of French attacks, with Mbappé & Co. dropping short into spaces between the lines.
With 8.5 shots on target per game at this tournament, France will test Paraguay's penalty hero, Orlando Gill, but they won’t play to their opponents’ aerial strengths. Les Bleus are averaging just 2.3 accurate crosses per match in the last four contests, so look for a steady diet of intricate passing moves instead.
France vs Paraguay projected lineup
France (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernández; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Olise, Dembélé, Barcola; Mbappé
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gill; Cáceres, Alderete, Velázquez, Alonso; Almiron, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio; Avalos, Enciso
France vs Paraguay injuries
France: No key injuries to report.
Paraguay: Julio Enciso FW (Probable).
France vs Paraguay weather
It’s going to be a scorcher in Philly on Saturday, with temperatures in the mid-90s despite a chance of light rain.
France vs Paraguay odds
 France |
 Paraguay |
|
|---|---|---|
| -550 | Moneyline | +1400 |
| +600 | Draw | +600 |
| Over 2.5 (-150) | Total | Under 2.5 (+120) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch France vs Paraguay
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, July 4, 2026 |
| Time | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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