The Minnesota Wild may have taken nine of the last 10 meetings vs. the Edmonton Oilers, but Connor McDavid and the home side enter this game on a dominant five-game winning streak while Minnesota is coming off a 2-0 loss last night in Vancouver and are 6-12 SU in their last 18.
With the Wild sporting one of the worst penalty kills in the league and taking penalties at a Top-5 rate, does this Edmonton power play have a plus matchup tonight in a game where they sit as a big NHL odds favorite of -189?
Here are my best NHL picks for Wild vs. Oilers on December 8.
Wild vs Oilers odds
Wild vs Oilers predictions
The Minnesota Wild enter tonight on the backend of a back-to-back having lost 2-0 in Vancouver last night so the travel is a net loss of one hour for a Minnesota team that is stacking losses and struggling with its special teams.
The Wild also fired their coach last week but this will be game No.6 under John Hynes and although they are 4-1 under the new bench boss, the new-coach smell has worn off and this is still a team with the No.31 penalty kill, takes penalties at a Top 5 rate, and is in a tough schedule spot with their backup Marc-Andre Fleury who ranks 60th among 63 goalies in goals saved above expected/60 (minimum eight starts.
That has the Edmonton Oilers power play and offense licking its chops.
Connor McDavid has put this team on his back over its current five-game win streak where the MVP has totaled 16 points. He is doing everything and is unstoppable right now. The power play could pot multiple goals tonight vs. a tired team and although I do like Evan Bouchard (+145) and McDavid’s (-110) power-play markets, I’m taking the Oilers’ team total Over 4.
Sports Interaction has flat numbers for team totals which always helps bettors. At +105, I’ll take a push but this offense put up six even-strength goals vs. the Hurricanes on Wednesday and has hit the four-goal mark in eight of its last 11 games including five or more goals in four of its last five.
Zach Hyman is coming off a hat trick, Bouchard is riding an eight-game point streak, and Leon Draisaitl has just one point over his last three games so he has more to give. This offense can score at 5-on-5 tonight but should get plenty of opportunities to run up the score with the man advantage where this power play has found its groove with a 5-for-12 run over the last four games.
My best bet: Oilers team total Over 4 (+105 at SIA)
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Wild vs Oilers same-game parlay
There are no flat numbers for team totals in the SGP so I'm looking for five with one of them coming from Hyman who is benefitting the most from McDavid's recent play. The travel and schedule aren't helping the Wild tonight and the Oilers are returning 16% ROI on 1P moneylines over their last 90 games.
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Wild vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Oilers opened as -180 home favorites in tonight's game in Edmonton but bettors have moved that price to as short as -200 by this afternoon. The total opened at 6.5 at -130 for the Over but it has yet to see much movement.
It’s a tough schedule spot for the Wild who played in Vancouver last night and were shutout 2-0. It’s a travel day where they lose an hour and play a waiting Edmonton team who has been at home for three of its last five games and is 5-0 SU and outscoring its opponents 27 to eight over that stretch.
Minnesota will likely turn to goalie Marc-Andre Fleury tonight. The veteran goalie is having a rough go this year. Despite a Minnesota team that has been in the Top-10 in most defensive metrics all year, the goaltending (and special teams) has really let this team down.
Fleury has only played four games over the last 30 days and owns a 3.99 GAA and a .864 save percentage across those games. He has also been one of the worst goalies short-handed, ranking 61st out of 64 goalies in goals saved above expected/60 at 4-on-5.
The Wild aren’t far from a seven-game losing streak that got their coach canned. Minnesota did respond to the change with a four-game winning streak, but the new-car smell is done and this is an average team at best with weak goaltending and poor special teams.
With McDavid playing at this level, and the Oilers playing more structured hockey with better goaltending, it’s a tough spot to back the Wild as plus-money road dogs with the schedule being a major factor. This is also the last game of a three-game West Coast road trip for the Wild.
Although I do like the Oilers’ team total Over 4, I’m not running out to get the Over 6.5 at -130. It’s heavily juiced and Edmonton is getting good goaltending of late and facing a team that was just shut out last night. I’d rather play the Oilers’ 3-way ML at -120 than the Over 6.5 at -130.
Once Fleury is announced, this could touch 7 (it’s almost there now) and get shorter than the -200.
Wild vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the 1P Moneyline in 59 of their last 90 games (+19.80 Units / 14% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Oilers.
Wild vs Oilers game info
|Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
|Friday, December 8, 2023
|9:00 p.m. ET
Wild vs Oilers latest injuries
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