Tuesday’s NHL nightcap on TNT features a Central Division tilt between the Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks. NHL odds have Minnesota as a large road favorite while the total has bounced between 5.5 and six.
The Under has been the bet to make when these two teams have met over the past few seasons, with five or fewer total goals scored in five of the past seven matchups.
Will this trend continue, or will the goals pick up this time around? Find out in my free NHL picks for Wild vs. Blackhawks on Wednesday, February 7.
Wild vs Blackhawks odds
Wild vs Blackhawks predictions
We’ve been nailing the Under in Blackhawks games all season here on Covers, and I am going to keep going back to the well whenever this team plays due to its combination of horrific offensive play and excellent goaltending. Let’s start with the goaltending as Petr Mrazek is expected to guard the cage for Chicago on Wednesday evening.
Through 34 appearances in the crease this season, Mrazek boasts a .910 SV% and 2.92 GAA. Making these numbers even more impressive is the fact that he faces a tremendous amount of high-danger scoring chances, but he has held his ground all year.
The guy has allowed two or fewer goals in seven of his past eight starts, posting a commanding .936 SV% and 1.89 GAA over that stretch. Unsurprisingly, there have been five or fewer total goals scored in seven of those eight outings.
The other variable that is creating this trend is terrible offensive play. This season, the Hawks rank in the bottom two of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage, and shooting percentage.
Their underlying metrics are just as poor, ranking 31st in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. However, the reason why I like the Under in this spot is that Minnesota has played almost as poorly in the offensive zone as it ranks in the bottom half of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage, and shooting percentage.
Its offensive analytics suggest even further regression is likely, ranking 29th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. Analytically, this is a much stronger team in the back end as it ranks sixth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
My best bet: Under 5.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
Wild vs Blackhawks same-game parlay
Under 5.5
Wild moneyline
While I like the Under in this matchup, this same game parlay is a way to involve betting Minnesota at plus money in a game where it is unquestionably the better team. This season, the Wild rank higher than Chicago in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage, shooting percentage, faceoff percentage, goals allowed per game, and shots on goal allowed per game.
A bit long-winded, yes, but that just goes to show how lopsided this matchup is. This lopsidedness also applies to the underlying metrics as the Wild, at 5-on-5, rank higher than the Hawks in xGF/60, xGA/60, and expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
Both teams are also riddled with injuries and are forced to play with lower-level talent, which is always good for the Under.
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Wild vs Blackhawks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Wild opened as a –245 favorite and have since been bet down to -230. This market behavior is quite shocking to me and is probably due to the fact that Minnesota has struggled in its own right and is also dealing with a ton of injuries.
With that said, it is still undoubtedly the stronger team. That brings us to the total, which opened at 5.5 or six depending on the shop.
Personally, I think there is more value in taking Under 5.5 at +102 via FanDuel rather than laying more juice on Under 6, but I believe the latter is still a strong play if you wish to go that route.
Wild vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in seven of Mrazek’s past eight starts. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Blackhawks.
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Wild vs Blackhawks game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Wild vs Blackhawks latest injuries
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