We’ve got 13 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers.
Both teams were red hot in February and will look to keep sizzling as the calendar flips, but I see some value in tonight’s NHL odds while digging into the shot prop market for the Leafs.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this March 2 matchup.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs odds
Rangers vs Maple Leafs predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers are two of the hottest teams in the NHL. The Buds have won eight of their last nine games, while the Blue Shirts have been victorious in nine of their last 10.
However, when digging into the numbers, I’ve seen a trend that looks exploitable tonight on the betting market. Despite winning nine of their last 10, the last six have been thanks to hot goalie play, as the Rangers defense has given up an average of 39.2 shots on goal per game.
Thus, I’m looking at a Leafs shot prop for tonight’s best bet.
Toronto ranked seventh in the league over February in shots on goal at 32.3 per game. One player in particular who has been consistently hitting his Overs on his shot prop lately is Tyler Bertuzzi, who’s paying +135 to the Over with his shot total set at 2.5.
He's been on a tear of late with seven goals in his last seven games; he's also gone Over his shot total in four straight and five of those seven. He’s averaging 3.0 shots per game over that span, a huge jump from the 1.9 he was averaging in the 51 games prior.
The reason for this increase is twofold:
First, he’s been elevated to the top power-play unit, which has increased his minutes and shot attempts quite considerably.
He's been excellent thanks to those adjustments and I expect that to continue tonight.
My best bet: Tyler Bertuzzi Over 2.5 shots on goal (+135 at SIA)
Rangers vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Tyler Bertuzzi anytime goalscorer
Rangers +2.5
Alternate total Under 7.5
We’ll mirror my Bertuzzi shot prop with an anytime goal from the Leafs winger. After being snake-bitten for months, the goals are coming in bunches now. He’s scored in three straight games and has been getting insane puck luck. Plus, he’s now featured on the top power-play unit that's operating at an insane clip right now.
Next up, there’s good value on the Rangers alternate spread at +2.5. I think it’ll be a lower-scoring game that could go either way, but this wager softens away the risk of an empty netter crushing the Rangers +1.5.
I’ll stick with an alternate bet and go with Under 7.5 on the game total. Igor Shesterkin has been the best goaltender in the league over the past month with a .953 SV% and a 1.72 GAA, so goals may be tough to come by.
The Leafs named Ilya Samsonov the starter for tonight. He’s been a little less stellar with an .888 SV% and a 3.01 GAA in February. So taking the alternate Under should relieve a bit of the risk for Sammy’s inconsistencies on home ice.
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Rangers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the slight betting favorites at -120 with the Rangers getting even money (+100) on the road.
I’m a little surprised the Leafs are favored by so much in this game considering their less-than-stellar home record and the fact the Rangers are rolling right now, winning nine of their last 10 games. New York won the earlier meeting between these two clubs 5-2 and has won six of the last 10 against the Leafs. I don't hate that +100 price.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5, shading towards the Under at -120, with the Over getting even money. I went with the alternate total of 7.5 in my SGP, but that was just to mitigate risk.
I get the sense this will be a low-scoring game with Shesterkin playing at an elite level and having the Under hit in five straight for New York.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have cashed the third-period moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Maple Leafs.
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Rangers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MSG |
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