Islanders vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Stars Shine Bright Against Isles

The Islanders have lost five of their last six and are now shuffling lines ahead of tonight's matchup against the Stars. As our NHL picks break down below, we expect Dallas to handle business at home.

Feb 26, 2024 • 18:10 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The New York Islanders have dropped five of their past six and can’t keep the puck out of their net with 4+ goals allowed in each of the five losses. They’re a road underdog in the NHL odds against the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center on Monday, who are coming off a tidy 2-1 road win over the Hurricanes.

While Dallas had dropped four straight before Saturday’s win over Carolina, the timely victory returned the Stars to the top of the competitive Central Division.

New York, meanwhile, is long past the new-coach bump Patrick Roy provided, and the Islanders are now nine points out of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference and have three teams to leapfrog.

Here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for the Islanders vs. Stars showdown in Big D on Monday, February 26.

Islanders vs Stars odds

Islanders vs Stars predictions

Not only are the New York Islanders eroding from the playoff picture, but they’ve struggled on the road all season with a 10-12-5 record and a 25th-ranked 2.81 goals per game.

It also stands as a tall order Monday because the Dallas Stars have won four of five at home, and backup Scott Wedgewood is 8-3-1 on home ice this season despite underwhelming supporting statistics (.885 SV% and 3.19 GAA). 

However, those numbers were dragged down by Wedgewood having to do the heavy lifting while No. 1 Jake Oettinger was out with a lower-body injury. Wedgewood is now back to his familiar role where he posted .915 and 2.72 marks across 21 appearances as the No. 2 last season. 

Additionally, the Stars have surrendered the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, but a 17th-ranked .911 team save percentage has them sitting 18th in goals against per 60 (2.47).

So, with them also ranking seventh in penalty-kill percentage (82.4%), Dallas is much better positioned with both goaltenders healthy and back in their familiar rotation.

Returning to the Islanders, they don’t drive 5-on-5 possession (46.3 CF%) to begin with, and their road struggles are even more pronounced in that regard with a 44.7 CF% on the highway.

Finally, the Isles loaded up their No. 1 line with Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Mathew Barzal in Sunday’s practice, and that will make them all the easier to match up against. Barzal hasn’t been playing the middle as much as in years past, but those three are the best three centermen on the roster.

New York won't have the luxury of last change tonight. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

My best bet: Stars 3-way moneyline (+100 at bet365)

Islanders vs Stars same-game parlay

Stars to win in regulation

Anders Lee Under 0.5 points

Kyle Palmieri Under 0.5 points

I’m targeting Islanders wingers Anders Lee and Kyle Palmieri in the point market because they’re the two receiving the largest hits with the New York line shuffle. Lee drops to the second line and Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a huge downgrade from Nelson at center for Palmieri.

Pageau has just 1.16 points per 60 minutes and a disastrous 38.8 CF% at 5-on-5 this season, and both numbers are miles behind Nelson’s respective 2.24 and 50.0 marks. Additionally, Pageau, Lee, and Palmieri have just 29:19 of shared ice time (0:11 per game) at 5-on-5 over the past three seasons.

As noted, the Stars are already a tough matchup, so jumping the boards with unfamiliar linemates isn’t the recipe for offensive success.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Islanders vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This moneyline initially moved to the Dallas side Sunday, and then there was small action on New York to return the moneyline to Stars -165 after it opened at -166 through Pinnacle.

With neither team playing a back-to-back set, I anticipated both No. 1 goalies to start, but as expected, there was money coming in on the Isles with the announcement Wedgewood would start. New York starter Ilya Sorokin left the morning skate first, so he’s all but confirmed to be starting Monday.

There has been back-and-forth action on this total after it opened at 6 with the Under priced at -109 on Sunday at Pinnacle. The number climbed to 6.5, returned to 6, and is now back to 6.5 with the Under at -118 as of Monday morning.

It's trading at 6 through bet365 with the Over carrying the higher vig (-120), and there's a wide range of prices available across the industry for both 6 and 6.5.

Islanders vs Stars betting trend to know

Dallas has won four of its past five home games and four of their past five against the Islanders at American Airlines Center. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Stars.

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Islanders vs Stars game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Monday, February 26, 2024
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: NHL Network

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