It was a winning day yesterday, and the NHL Puck Props show continues to turn a profit and is up over 10 units to begin the season. It's a Friday slate with plenty of more mispriced angles to take advantage of.
The Winnipeg Jets' offense might be one of the worst on paper and has to face a Vezina candidate tonight, while JJ Peterka won't see Connor Hellebuyck and is mispriced for a point.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Oct. 2.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jets team total Under 2.5 |
42% |
 JJ Peterka Over 0.5 pts |
50% |
  Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over 6.5 |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Jets team total Under 2.5
The Winnipeg Jets might have one of the worst offenses in hockey, and now they have to face the Boston Bruins, who just blanked the Rangers in their opener.
Jeremy Swayman is confirmed as the starter and finished Boston's last game with +2.01 GSAx. He is a contender in the Vezina Trophy odds and should be a buy right now at 12/1.
Early hockey has been sloppy, and I’d expect the Jets to run all four lines. That is bad news for Winnipeg’s goal-scoring chances because, after the top line, things get ugly for the home side. They’re running a rookie at 2C in Viggo Bjorck and a third line of Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry, and Brad Lambert.
Boston is being undervalued in the market, and I’d play this to 52%.
- Matchup: Bruins vs. Jets
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba
- TV: TSN3
Pick #2: JJ Peterka Over 0.5 points
With Connor Hellebuyck unavailable for Winnipeg, Stuart Skinner is expected to get the start. The Bruins are live dogs here and can flirt with four goals tonight.
JJ Peterka scored in his Boston debut Wednesday. He played more than 17 minutes, over two minutes per game above his average in Utah last season.
Now skating with David Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm on the top line and first power-play unit, this price should be around 57% for a point in this matchup.
It's a perfect example of the market pricing him based on the player he was rather than the opportunities he has with his new team.
- Matchup: Bruins vs. Jets
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba
- TV: TSN3
Pick #3: Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over 6.5
Although the Vegas Golden Knights took care of the Blackhawks in their opener, this is a team that struggled heavily against playoff teams last year, going 12-27 SU against playoff teams during the regular season.
The Anaheim Ducks also won three straight against Vegas before meeting in the postseason, all by a score of 4-3.
Vegas could be a dead Over team to begin the year, as the goaltending isn’t great, while the offense and power play are legit.
Anaheim could be in the same boat, but I love an Over 6.5 when I can expect two-way scoring, and the Ducks can absolutely win this game.
- Matchup: Ducks vs. Golden Knights
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- TV: ESPN+
- Top picks: 4-5 +0.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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