The Detroit Red Wings are drawing a New York Rangers team bleeding chances and playing without Igor Shesterkin, which puts star weapons like Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat front and center with tonight's NHL player props.
Let's break down three NHL picks for Friday, October 2.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 points |
62% |
 Mikko Rantanen Over 0.5 assists |
55% |
| Alex DeBrincat anytime goal |
43% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 points
I’m backing Lucas Raymond to find the scoresheet up to 65%.
The New York Rangers have given up a lot defensively through two games, conceding 7.43 expected goals.
Opponents have only converted 7.43 xG into four goals, but that’s Igor Shesterkin being Igor Shesterkin.
The good news is Raymond won’t have to worry about him. The Rangers are in a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, which means Dylan Garand will get the nod.
He posted an .896 SV% over 36 games in the AHL last season. Suffice to say, he’s not Shesterkin.
Raymond is the straw that stirs the drink for Detroit, making him the most likely candidate to capitalize.
- Matchup: New York Rangers vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
- TV: SN1, TNT
Prop pick #2: Mikko Rantanen Over 0.5 assists
I see value in Mikko Rantanen picking up an assist all the way to 60%.
He was a model of consistency for the Dallas Stars last season, recording a helper in 66% of his games – and 70% on home soil.
He plays with an elite finisher in Wyatt Johnston at 5-on-5. He also has the luxury of spoon-feeding Johnston and Jason Robertson – two of seven players to pot 45 goals last season, on the man advantage.
That’s certainly noteworthy as St. Louis conceded power-play markers at the ninth-highest clip last year.
- Matchup: St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas
- TV: SN+, TNT
Goal scorer pick: Alex DeBrincat
We’re going to double-dip on Detroit Red Wings players and target Alex DeBrincat for a goal at 47%.
The sample size is small, but the Rangers haven't exactly played tight defense thus far, ranking Bottom-5 in expected goal suppression. They won’t have Shesterkin between the pipes to mask their mistakes.
DeBrincat was a goal-scoring machine last season when Detroit was favored at home. He found the net in 55% of such games, averaging 0.70 goals.
With Dylan Larkin sidelined, Detroit has one less mouth to feed, making DeBrincat’s shot an even bigger focal point of the offense.
- Matchup: New York Rangers vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
- TV: SN+, TNT
- Prop picks: 5-4, +0.68 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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